TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129116
Played Sep 14Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511811––––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 51 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 59.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 8–3 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Skvor has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Drozd
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1483 vs Skvor 1471
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Skvor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 70% vs Skvor 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +2 · Skvor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.61 / Skvor 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Drozd)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13129116
Drozd1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 34 of 48
Skvor2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd8wins
AwaySkvor2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDrozd leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd100%7 of 7
AwaySkvor66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd7Skvor3n = 10Drozd took 7 of 10
S2Drozd5Skvor5n = 10split evenly
S3Drozd7Skvor3n = 10Drozd took 7 of 10
S4Drozd3Skvor5n = 8Skvor took 5 of 8
S5Drozd4Skvor0n = 4Drozd took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdSkvorD − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.1+0.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 264 vs 78 / 15551.1%50.3%135 / 264 vs 78 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.61/Skvor 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd46118114123O. Skvor48811811102
WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd351113113O. Skvor2661190
WAug 23 · 06:40A. Drozd41116112113O. Skvor4791191172
WAug 1 · 10:10A. Drozd41111711113O. Skvor4691111962
LAug 1 · 08:10A. Drozd326111141O. Skvor4411913113
WJul 25 · 16:45A. Drozd50146118113O. Skvor44121141162
WJul 25 · 15:15A. Drozd4591411113O. Skvor381112781
LJul 4 · 17:08A. Drozd31761171O. Skvor4111118113
WJul 4 · 15:40A. Drozd4113116113O. Skvor371181171
WJun 9 · 07:15A. Drozd331111113O. Skvor209920
A. Drozd10
WSep 14 · 14:45A. Drozd1.801111113K. Przeczek1.919770WSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123
O. Skvor10
WSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123LSep 14 · 14:15O. Skvor1.5711961152K. Przeczek2.25511117113WSep 13 · 17:15K. Zeman1.808116101O. Skvor1.9011911123LSep 13 · 16:15O. Skvor1.736960K. Zeman2.001111113WSep 13 · 14:45F. Theodor1.835870O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113LSep 13 · 13:10O. Kus2.15811116113O. Skvor1.6011921172WSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102LSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190
Upcoming Matches
A. Drozd
Nothing scheduled
O. Skvor
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