TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13130428
Played Sep 14Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210112119––––
Ales Drozd
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9
55 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 4–8 Ales Drozd Ondrej Skvor has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Skvor beat Drozd 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.83 / Drozd 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Drozd)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13130428
Skvor1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Drozd1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor3wins
AwayDrozd7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDrozd leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor75%3 of 4
AwayDrozd100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S2Skvor6Drozd4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S3Skvor4Drozd6n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S4Skvor5Drozd3n = 8Skvor took 5 of 8
S5Skvor0Drozd4n = 4Drozd took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorDrozdS − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.0+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 156 vs 135 / 26550.6%50.9%79 / 156 vs 135 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdSkvor 1.83/Drozd 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 15:45O. Skvor331111113A. Drozd185580
LSep 13 · 10:45O. Skvor48811811102A. Drozd46118114123
LSep 11 · 16:10O. Skvor2661190A. Drozd351113113
LAug 23 · 06:40O. Skvor4791191172A. Drozd41116112113
LAug 1 · 10:10O. Skvor4691111962A. Drozd41111711113
WAug 1 · 08:10O. Skvor4411913113A. Drozd326111141
LJul 25 · 16:45O. Skvor44121141162A. Drozd50146118113
LJul 25 · 15:15O. Skvor381112781A. Drozd4591411113
WJul 4 · 17:08O. Skvor4111118113A. Drozd31761171
LJul 4 · 15:40O. Skvor371181171A. Drozd4113116113
O. Skvor10
WSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113WSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123LSep 14 · 14:15O. Skvor1.5711961152K. Przeczek2.25511117113WSep 13 · 17:15K. Zeman1.808116101O. Skvor1.9011911123LSep 13 · 16:15O. Skvor1.736960K. Zeman2.001111113WSep 13 · 14:45F. Theodor1.835870O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113LSep 13 · 13:10O. Kus2.15811116113O. Skvor1.6011921172WSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102
A. Drozd10
LSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113WSep 14 · 14:45A. Drozd1.801111113K. Przeczek1.919770WSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852
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