TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158390
Played Sep 19Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611611117117117
Michal Janik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 1–1 Michal Janik Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:53What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Janik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1356 vs Janik 1447
Janik
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Janik 80%
Janik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 60% vs Janik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -1 · Janik +3
Janik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Janik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.83 / Janik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Janik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13158390
Ogrocki1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Janik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOgrocki1wins
AwayJanik1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOgrockiJanikO − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match37.040.0−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 480 vs 123 / 27546.5%44.7%223 / 480 vs 123 / 275Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanikOgrocki 1.83/Janik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Janik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 12 · 07:15T. Ogrocki279990M. Janik331111113
WJun 24 · 18:15T. Ogrocki473121011113M. Janik47111012862
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113LSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951LSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122WSep 17 · 21:10R. Benesz2.102490T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113WSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113LSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113WSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113LSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113
M. Janik10
WSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113WSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481LSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.