TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158387
Played Sep 19Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911511911––
Michal Janik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:52 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ales Drozd at 63.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 3–2 Michal Janik Michal Janik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:52What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1463 vs Janik 1421
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Janik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Janik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +2 · Janik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Drozd) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.57 / Janik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Drozd)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13158387
Drozd1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 43 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 35 of 49
Janik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 28 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDrozd3wins
AwayJanik2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderDrozd leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd66.7%2 of 3
AwayJanikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd3Janik2n = 5Drozd took 3 of 5
S2Drozd3Janik2n = 5Drozd took 3 of 5
S3Drozd3Janik2n = 5Drozd took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDrozdJanikD − JBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.235.4−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 268 vs 123 / 27651.1%44.6%137 / 268 vs 123 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.57/Janik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Janik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 23 · 09:05A. Drozd331111113M. Janik227780
LAug 23 · 07:40A. Drozd4211851172M. Janik51911119113
WAug 4 · 06:40A. Drozd341211113M. Janik2610880
WMar 29 · 12:40A. Drozd42111118113M. Janik4511871182
LMar 29 · 12:10A. Drozd259790M. Janik331111113
A. Drozd10
WSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980WSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122LSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor1.831211113A. Drozd1.8310290LSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113WSep 14 · 14:45A. Drozd1.801111113K. Przeczek1.919770WSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111113WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282
M. Janik10
LSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772WSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481LSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113
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