TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158396
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Janik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1168111614119––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:56 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Janik above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 86 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 56.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Janik 3–2 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Skvor has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Janik 1434 vs Skvor 1487
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Janik 80% vs Skvor 100%
Skvor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Janik 50% vs Skvor 80%
Skvor
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Janik +2 · Skvor +7
Skvor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJanik 2.10 / Skvor 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Skvor)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13158396
Janik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 17 days ago (Sep 02) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 28 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Skvor1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 14)
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 49 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it65% 33 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJanik3wins
AwaySkvor2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderJanik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJanikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvor50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Janik1Skvor4n = 5Skvor took 4 of 5
S2Janik2Skvor3n = 5Skvor took 3 of 5
S3Janik4Skvor1n = 5Janik took 4 of 5
S4Janik2Skvor2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricJanikSkvorJ − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match37.636.0+1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJanikSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 273 vs 84 / 16144.3%52.2%121 / 273 vs 84 / 161Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorJanik 2.10/Skvor 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Janik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik531111119113O. Skvor4013761132
WSep 2 · 16:39M. Janik4112711113O. Skvor371011971
LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik31571181O. Skvor4011117113
LAug 23 · 10:10M. Janik229760O. Skvor331111113
WAug 23 · 06:10M. Janik4181111113O. Skvor30114871
M. Janik10
WSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113LSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481LSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113
O. Skvor10
LSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980WSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061WSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113WSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113WSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor1.831211113A. Drozd1.8310290WSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113LSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132LSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113WSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113
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