TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148725
Played Sep 17Finished
Radomir Benesz
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211411911––––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadomir Benesz above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 48 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Radomir Benesz 10–13 Tomas Ogrocki Radomir Benesz has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Benesz beat Ogrocki 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benesz 1338 vs Ogrocki 1348
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benesz 80% vs Ogrocki 60%
Benesz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benesz 40% vs Ogrocki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benesz +4 · Ogrocki +2
Benesz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benesz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenesz 2.10 / Ogrocki 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Ogrocki)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13148725
Benesz2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Ogrocki1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 54 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 36 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenesz4wins
AwayOgrocki6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesz60%3 of 5
AwayOgrocki80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benesz5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Benesz3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S3Benesz5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Benesz4Ogrocki4n = 8split evenly
S5Benesz1Ogrocki2n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBeneszOgrockiB − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.640.3−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeneszOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 213 vs 222 / 47837.6%46.4%80 / 213 vs 222 / 478Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiBenesz 2.10/Ogrocki 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 18:10R. Benesz4171112113T. Ogrocki331131091
LSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz371091351T. Ogrocki45121111113
LJun 20 · 20:10R. Benesz2413560T. Ogrocki371511113
WJun 18 · 20:10R. Benesz3611311113T. Ogrocki30411871
LJun 16 · 20:15R. Benesz47111351172T. Ogrocki559111113113
LJun 11 · 20:45R. Benesz361376101T. Ogrocki45111111123
WJun 11 · 17:45R. Benesz4211911113T. Ogrocki32711681
WJun 5 · 20:39R. Benesz42113116113T. Ogrocki4051181152
LJun 5 · 20:10R. Benesz2791080T. Ogrocki341112113
LMay 24 · 18:40R. Benesz4451161392T. Ogrocki521181111113
R. Benesz10
WSep 17 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8371411113M. Dolezal1.831112251WSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113WSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113WSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123LSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113LSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121LSep 9 · 16:45R. Benesz1.733960L. Zustina1.981111113LSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 15:15O. Vaclahovsky1.53161211113R. Benesz2.381414481
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113WSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113LSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113WSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113LSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113WSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 14 · 16:45K. Przeczek1.5711158113T. Ogrocki2.259131171LSep 14 · 16:15K. Przeczek1.611613113T. Ogrocki2.20141190LSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123
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