TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143138
Played Sep 16Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.04
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Karel Zeman
Away
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:01 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Karel Zeman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Karel Zeman at 55.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 6–8 Karel Zeman Ondrej Kus has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kus beat Zeman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Zeman
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1390 vs Zeman 1448
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 80% vs Zeman 60%
Kus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 50% vs Zeman 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus +4 · Zeman -1
Kus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.04 / Zeman 1.66
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Zeman)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13143138
Kus2.04
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Zeman1.66
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 67 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 50 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus5wins
AwayZeman5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus66.7%4 of 6
AwayZeman75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus6Zeman4n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S2Kus3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Kus2Zeman8n = 10Zeman took 8 of 10
S4Kus4Zeman2n = 6Kus took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusZemanK − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.535.0−1.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 532 vs 177 / 31849.6%55.7%264 / 532 vs 177 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanKus 2.04/Zeman 1.66
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus236890K. Zeman331111113
WSep 16 · 19:40O. Kus3811511113K. Zeman32911841
WSep 14 · 20:48O. Kus331111113K. Zeman205960
LSep 14 · 19:45O. Kus36118891K. Zeman4181111113
LSep 13 · 15:15O. Kus32118761K. Zeman4071111113
LSep 1 · 21:08O. Kus207670K. Zeman331111113
WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus3811124113K. Zeman356101181
WAug 19 · 19:40O. Kus45116611113K. Zeman3961111472
LAug 17 · 20:45O. Kus2212370K. Zeman361411113
WAug 17 · 18:15O. Kus48611911113K. Zeman4111511772
O. Kus10
WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113WSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761
K. Zeman10
LSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371WSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113WSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113LSep 13 · 17:15K. Zeman1.808116101O. Skvor1.9011911123WSep 13 · 16:15O. Skvor1.736960K. Zeman2.001111113WSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761
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