TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158378
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Janik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113119––––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Janik above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-9
Point 50 set 3, 9-9 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 54.0%
50 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Janik 4–2 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Skvor has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Janik beat Skvor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:44What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Janik
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Janik 1425 vs Skvor 1458
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Janik 60% vs Skvor 40%
Janik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Janik 60% vs Skvor 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Janik -1 · Skvor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJanik 2.00 / Skvor 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvor)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13158378
Janik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 28 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Skvor1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 49 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it65% 33 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeJanik4wins
AwaySkvor2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderJanik leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJanikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvor50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Janik2Skvor4n = 6Skvor took 4 of 6
S2Janik2Skvor4n = 6Skvor took 4 of 6
S3Janik5Skvor1n = 6Janik took 5 of 6
S4Janik3Skvor2n = 5Janik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricJanikSkvorJ − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.036.7+2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJanikSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 278 vs 85 / 16544.6%51.5%124 / 278 vs 85 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorJanik 2.00/Skvor 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Janik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik4611816113O. Skvor406111491
WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik531111119113O. Skvor4013761132
WSep 2 · 16:39M. Janik4112711113O. Skvor371011971
LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik31571181O. Skvor4011117113
LAug 23 · 10:10M. Janik229760O. Skvor331111113
WAug 23 · 06:10M. Janik4181111113O. Skvor30114871
M. Janik10
LSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113LSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772WSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481
O. Skvor10
LSep 19 · 18:45K. Zeman2.10101111113O. Skvor1.67129661LSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951LSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980LSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061WSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113LSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132LSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113
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