TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Pour
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118911511––
Ondrej Sebek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Sebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Pour above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ondrej Sebek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Pour 11–7 Ondrej Sebek Ondrej Sebek has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:15What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pour
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Pour
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pour 1271 vs Sebek 1287
Sebek
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pour 60% vs Sebek 80%
Sebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pour 40% vs Sebek 60%
Sebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pour -1 · Sebek +3
Sebek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Pour) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPour 1.40 / Sebek 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Pour)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13161949
Pour1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 10) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite27% won 6 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Sebek2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 17)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 18 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePour6wins
AwaySebek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPour leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePour85.7%6 of 7
AwaySebek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pour7Sebek3n = 10Pour took 7 of 10
S2Pour4Sebek6n = 10Sebek took 6 of 10
S3Pour6Sebek4n = 10Pour took 6 of 10
S4Pour3Sebek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPourSebekP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.533.7+2.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPourSebekBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 156 vs 185 / 37443.6%49.5%68 / 156 vs 185 / 374Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PourPour 1.40/Sebek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Pour · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour30511951O. Sebek4111811113
WSep 10 · 12:20L. Pour331111113O. Sebek246990
LMay 17 · 08:20L. Pour2681080O. Sebek341112113
LApr 30 · 17:20L. Pour4511912852O. Sebek430111011113
WApr 30 · 14:20L. Pour4111811113O. Sebek34811691
LMar 6 · 17:50L. Pour2367100O. Sebek341111123
WMar 6 · 11:50L. Pour4211911113O. Sebek34511991
WFeb 17 · 18:50L. Pour341112113O. Sebek2161050
WFeb 17 · 17:20L. Pour4211119113O. Sebek31871151
WFeb 13 · 09:20L. Pour49117119113O. Sebek4171171152
L. Pour10
LSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113LJul 26 · 13:26J. Brynych1.601211113L. Pour2.2010650LJul 26 · 12:20J. Brynych1.4412115113L. Pour2.631081181
O. Sebek10
LSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682WSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481WSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462LSep 17 · 18:20O. Sebek2.106770M. Dlask1.671111113WSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113
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