TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145250
Played Sep 17Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191214118––
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Kolbusovsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Kolbusovsky at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 39–25 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 25 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-25 in 64
Sebek
Correct
gap of 14 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1267 vs Kolbusovsky 1283
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 40% vs Kolbusovsky 0%
Sebek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 40% vs Kolbusovsky 20%
Sebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek +1 · Kolbusovsky -5
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Sebek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 1.36 / Kolbusovsky 3.00
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Sebek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13145250
Sebek1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite36% won 5 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Kolbusovsky3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 54 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek5wins
AwayKolbusovsky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolbusovsky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Sebek took 7 of 10
S2Sebek4Kolbusovsky6n = 10Kolbusovsky took 6 of 10
S3Sebek7Kolbusovsky3n = 10Sebek took 7 of 10
S4Sebek2Kolbusovsky6n = 8Kolbusovsky took 6 of 8
S5Sebek2Kolbusovsky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekKolbusovskyS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.5+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 370 vs 209 / 45349.2%46.1%182 / 370 vs 209 / 453Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SebekSebek 1.36/Kolbusovsky 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Sebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 13:19O. Sebek561461111143M. Kolbusovsky571211913122
LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek4598111162M. Kolbusovsky46111176113
LJun 4 · 10:50O. Sebek37911981M. Kolbusovsky3611311113
WMay 26 · 10:20O. Sebek491161110113M. Kolbusovsky4371141292
WMay 21 · 13:30O. Sebek341112113M. Kolbusovsky2261060
WMay 21 · 11:20O. Sebek4312119113M. Kolbusovsky351071171
WMay 17 · 10:00O. Sebek331111113M. Kolbusovsky238690
LMay 17 · 07:50O. Sebek33118951M. Kolbusovsky4291111113
LMay 12 · 12:20O. Sebek30741181M. Kolbusovsky3611113113
LMay 5 · 12:50O. Sebek4511811692M. Kolbusovsky45811411113
O. Sebek10
WSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682WSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462LSep 17 · 18:20O. Sebek2.106770M. Dlask1.671111113WSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682LSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260LSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113LSep 12 · 18:00R. Zeman1.131211113M. Kolbusovsky5.5010370LSep 12 · 16:55R. Zeman1.251111113M. Kolbusovsky3.754660LSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102LSep 12 · 15:25M. Kolbusovsky2.509870O. Hula1.501111113LSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143WSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113
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