TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145248
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411119311411––
Michal Nemec
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 64 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Michal Nemec at 57.1%
64 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 23–36 Michal Nemec Michal Kolbusovsky has won 23 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nemec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-36 in 59
Nemec
Correct
gap of 13 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1311 vs Nemec 1363
Nemec
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 0% vs Nemec 40%
Nemec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Nemec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky -5 · Nemec +1
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.25 / Nemec 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Nemec)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13145248
Kolbusovsky2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 54 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Nemec1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 78 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky5wins
AwayNemec5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky57.1%4 of 7
AwayNemec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky7Nemec3n = 10Kolbusovsky took 7 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky3Nemec7n = 10Nemec took 7 of 10
S4Kolbusovsky4Nemec5n = 9Nemec took 5 of 9
S5Kolbusovsky4Nemec3n = 7Kolbusovsky took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyNemecK − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.845.7−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 455 vs 367 / 77446.4%47.4%211 / 455 vs 367 / 774Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecKolbusovsky 2.25/Nemec 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky481110114123M. Nemec47812611102
LSep 10 · 12:50M. Kolbusovsky2481060M. Nemec341112113
WSep 4 · 17:25M. Kolbusovsky4213117113M. Nemec351161171
WSep 4 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky51914116113M. Nemec46111241182
WSep 2 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky46111158113M. Nemec3968111132
LJul 24 · 19:20M. Kolbusovsky3711551152M. Nemec50911118113
WJul 15 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky521171211113M. Nemec4491114732
LJul 14 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky5454251192M. Nemec621111236113
LJul 11 · 19:55M. Kolbusovsky4812147872M. Nemec5510121111113
LJul 9 · 21:20M. Kolbusovsky361114471M. Nemec4571611113
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260LSep 12 · 18:00R. Zeman1.131211113M. Kolbusovsky5.5010370LSep 12 · 16:55R. Zeman1.251111113M. Kolbusovsky3.754660LSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102LSep 12 · 15:25M. Kolbusovsky2.509870O. Hula1.501111113LSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981LSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113WSep 11 · 19:20J. Rolik1.441181171M. Kolbusovsky2.6371113113WSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143
M. Nemec10
LSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462WSep 15 · 21:20M. Nemec2.0011101311113M. Dlask1.7371215652LSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390LSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec1.61812611102M. Kolbusovsky2.201110114123
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