TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145278
Played Sep 17Finished
Ondrej Sebek
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11810121121214116
Michal Nemec
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:32 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Sebek above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 97 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Nemec at 76.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Sebek 2–19 Michal Nemec Ondrej Sebek has won 2 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Nemec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-19 in 21
Nemec
Wrong
gap of 17 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebek 1253 vs Nemec 1373
Nemec
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebek 20% vs Nemec 60%
Nemec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebek 30% vs Nemec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebek -1 · Nemec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebek 3.40 / Nemec 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Nemec)+4.3pp
TT Cup · #13145278
Sebek3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 17 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Nemec1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 78 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebek1wins
AwayNemec9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebek25%1 of 4
AwayNemec100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebek4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S2Sebek2Nemec8n = 10Nemec took 8 of 10
S3Sebek4Nemec6n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S4Sebek2Nemec5n = 7Nemec took 5 of 7
S5Sebek0Nemec3n = 3Nemec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSebekNemecS − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.241.5−9.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSebekNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 369 vs 365 / 77149.1%47.3%181 / 369 vs 365 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecSebek 3.40/Nemec 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.6%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek152850M. Nemec331111113
LSep 3 · 15:50O. Sebek35871191M. Nemec4111118113
LAug 24 · 13:59O. Sebek3911511932M. Nemec49911711113
LAug 24 · 11:50O. Sebek336121051M. Nemec44111012113
LJun 9 · 21:28O. Sebek50111111892M. Nemec50138711113
LJun 9 · 20:20O. Sebek186660M. Nemec331111113
LJun 4 · 11:50O. Sebek24111661M. Nemec4291111113
WMay 26 · 13:50O. Sebek4211811123M. Nemec399119101
LMay 26 · 11:20O. Sebek2275100M. Nemec341111123
LMar 26 · 12:50O. Sebek4411961172M. Nemec50811119113
O. Sebek10
LSep 17 · 18:20O. Sebek2.106770M. Dlask1.671111113WSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky1.911211913122O. Sebek1.801461111143LSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113LSep 10 · 10:20O. Sebek1.7398111162M. Kolbusovsky2.00111176113WSep 3 · 17:25J. Brynych1.2811681172O. Sebek3.50611117113WSep 3 · 16:20J. Rolik1.571110110O. Sebek2.251312133LSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191LSep 3 · 14:50O. Sebek3.2511640J. Brynych1.331311113LAug 28 · 13:23J. Brynych1.5013117183O. Sebek2.5011411161
M. Nemec10
WSep 17 · 20:50M. Nemec2.6313177143M. Dlask1.44111511121WSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113WSep 15 · 21:20M. Nemec2.0011101311113M. Dlask1.7371215652LSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390LSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113WSep 10 · 11:20O. Sebek3.252850M. Nemec1.331111113WSep 3 · 15:50M. Nemec1.3311118113O. Sebek3.25871191
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