TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13158941
Played Sep 19Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210311117114––
Olena Bondareva
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeAnna Lapa to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Olena Bondareva below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Anna Lapa at 72.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 37–10 Olena Bondareva Olena Bondareva has won 10 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lapa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-10 in 47
Lapa
Correct
gap of 27 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1452 vs Bondareva 1416
Lapa
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 40% vs Bondareva 20%
Lapa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 20% vs Bondareva 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa -3 · Bondareva -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lapa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondareva form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 1.33 / Bondareva 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Lapa)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13158941
Lapa1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 04) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 36 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Bondareva3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 06) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 24 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa7wins
AwayBondareva3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa57.1%4 of 7
AwayBondareva0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa7Bondareva3n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S2Lapa3Bondareva7n = 10Bondareva took 7 of 10
S3Lapa10Bondareva0n = 10Lapa took 10 of 10
S4Lapa4Bondareva5n = 9Bondareva took 5 of 9
S5Lapa3Bondareva3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaBondarevaL − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.140.6+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaBondarevaBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 484 vs 114 / 29451.5%38.8%249 / 484 vs 114 / 294Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LapaLapa 1.33/Bondareva 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Lapa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lapa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 15:05A. Lapa4011711292O. Bondareva48911611113
WAug 14 · 15:05A. Lapa4311813113O. Bondareva388111181
LAug 2 · 16:35A. Lapa4111811652O. Bondareva47911511113
WJul 3 · 18:35A. Lapa521110119113O. Bondareva4131271182
WJun 26 · 18:35A. Lapa4591111143O. Bondareva341156121
WJun 14 · 17:05A. Lapa3851111113O. Bondareva24116251
WJun 7 · 15:05A. Lapa518101111113O. Bondareva4511128772
LMay 15 · 15:05A. Lapa4011713362O. Bondareva506111111113
WMay 9 · 12:25A. Lapa541310119113O. Bondareva49111291162
WApr 26 · 17:05A. Lapa371311133O. Bondareva30118110
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113
O. Bondareva10
LSep 19 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.28611812113O. Bondareva3.50115111072LSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100LSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123LAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 14:05O. Bondareva4.00127591O. Ivchenko1.22101111113LAug 29 · 12:35O. Bondareva4.00111144152M. Gordeets1.22881111173LAug 20 · 19:05O. Bondareva3.50881231A. Gorchakova1.28111110113WAug 20 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.509580O. Bondareva1.281111113
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