TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13074022
Played Sep 4Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012711116511––
Anastasiia Volgina
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeAnastasiia Volgina to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Anastasiia Volgina below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Anastasiia Volgina at 60.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 47–56 Anastasiia Volgina Anna Lapa has won 47 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Volgina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-56 in 103
Volgina
Correct
gap of 9 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1459 vs Volgina 1650
Volgina
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 40% vs Volgina 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 30% vs Volgina 70%
Volgina
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa -1 · Volgina +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Volgina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volgina form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 2.20 / Volgina 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Volgina)+2.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13074022
Lapa2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Volgina1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa2wins
AwayVolgina8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVolgina leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa28.6%2 of 7
AwayVolgina100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa7Volgina3n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S2Lapa2Volgina8n = 10Volgina took 8 of 10
S3Lapa3Volgina7n = 10Volgina took 7 of 10
S4Lapa0Volgina6n = 6Volgina took 6 of 6
S5Lapa1Volgina2n = 3Volgina took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaVolginaL − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.739.3−4.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaVolginaBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 484 vs 365 / 64451.7%56.7%250 / 484 vs 365 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolginaLapa 2.20/Volgina 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Volgina · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Volgina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 14:05A. Lapa—5890A. Volgina—1111113
WAug 14 · 13:05A. Lapa—1191211113A. Volgina—611101382
LAug 7 · 16:05A. Lapa—117771A. Volgina—81111113
LJul 31 · 13:05A. Lapa—119791A. Volgina—71111113
LJul 26 · 15:35A. Lapa—9770A. Volgina—1111113
LJul 24 · 16:35A. Lapa—106110A. Volgina—1211133
LJul 19 · 13:05A. Lapa—11143872A. Volgina—6121111113
LJul 3 · 15:05A. Lapa—11811992A. Volgina—911511113
WJun 27 · 12:35A. Lapa—1211113A. Volgina—10750
LJun 26 · 17:05A. Lapa—117731A. Volgina—91111113
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113LAug 20 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.2511114113A. Lapa1.33971161
A. Volgina10
WSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861WSep 5 · 17:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7512971A. Volgina1.251411112LSep 5 · 16:05A. Volgina1.737960M. Gordeets2.001111113WSep 5 · 15:05V. Shevchuk1.91101191152A. Volgina1.80126116113LSep 5 · 13:35A. Volgina2.10118111192O. Ivchenko1.67131189113LSep 4 · 19:35A. Volgina1.8061080M. Gordeets1.911112113WSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 14:35A. Volgina1.36111189102A. Gorchakova3.00961111123LSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113
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