TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13074003
Played Sep 4Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1715811114118––
Ksenia Tymchenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timeAnna Lapa to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Ksenia Tymchenko below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 85 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Anna Lapa at 67.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 39–14 Ksenia Tymchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 14 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:06What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lapa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-14 in 53
Lapa
Correct
gap of 25 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1456 vs Tymchenko 1540
Tymchenko
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 20% vs Tymchenko 60%
Tymchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 30% vs Tymchenko 70%
Tymchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa +1 · Tymchenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Lapa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 1.40 / Tymchenko 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Lapa)+0.7pp
Setka Cup Women · #13074003
Lapa1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Tymchenko2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa7wins
AwayTymchenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa100%5 of 5
AwayTymchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa5Tymchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Lapa7Tymchenko3n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S3Lapa7Tymchenko3n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S4Lapa4Tymchenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Lapa2Tymchenko1n = 3Lapa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaTymchenkoL − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.0+3.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaTymchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 484 vs 144 / 41151.7%35%250 / 484 vs 144 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LapaLapa 1.40/Tymchenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67%
Lapa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lapa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 18:35A. Lapa—913671K. Tymchenko—111111113
LAug 20 · 18:35A. Lapa—971161K. Tymchenko—11114113
WAug 16 · 17:05A. Lapa—1112123K. Tymchenko—710100
WAug 2 · 15:05A. Lapa—1111113K. Tymchenko—8240
WJul 31 · 18:35A. Lapa—31111113K. Tymchenko—116851
WJul 19 · 15:05A. Lapa—61111123K. Tymchenko—1165101
WJul 3 · 16:35A. Lapa—1111713133K. Tymchenko—791115112
WJun 7 · 16:35A. Lapa—14411113K. Tymchenko—1211881
LJun 5 · 15:05A. Lapa—75111172K. Tymchenko—111193113
WMay 29 · 18:35A. Lapa—13111110113K. Tymchenko—114131292
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113LAug 20 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.2511114113A. Lapa1.33971161
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251191081A. Gorchakova1.3381112113WAug 30 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.38111211113V. Shevchuk1.531310581WAug 20 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.2511114113A. Lapa1.33971161
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