TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13074037
Played Sep 4Finished
Kateryna Bondarenko
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11911961151196
Ksenia Tymchenko
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:08 and never touched — 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Ksenia Tymchenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-6
Point 88 set 5, 9-6 — our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 82.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 9–0 Ksenia Tymchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 0 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-0 in 9
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1646 vs Tymchenko 1469
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 20% vs Tymchenko 40%
Tymchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 40% vs Tymchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -3 · Tymchenko -2
Bondarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.22 / Tymchenko 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Bondarenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13074037
Bondarenko1.22
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Tymchenko4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBondarenko9wins
AwayTymchenko0wins
4 of 9 to a deciderBondarenko leads 9–0, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%5 of 5
AwayTymchenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko5Tymchenko4n = 9Bondarenko took 5 of 9
S2Bondarenko6Tymchenko3n = 9Bondarenko took 6 of 9
S3Bondarenko6Tymchenko3n = 9Bondarenko took 6 of 9
S4Bondarenko6Tymchenko2n = 8Bondarenko took 6 of 8
S5Bondarenko4Tymchenko0n = 4Bondarenko took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricBondarenkoTymchenkoB − TBasisWins90+9in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match43.636.7+6.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoTymchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 122 vs 143 / 41168.9%34.8%84 / 122 vs 143 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.51.6per matchAvg pointsper match41.435.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.22/Tymchenko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko—11116593K. Tymchenko—99111162
WAug 16 · 15:05K. Bondarenko—11118113K. Tymchenko—361181
WAug 2 · 17:05K. Bondarenko—671511113K. Tymchenko—111113632
WJul 31 · 12:35K. Bondarenko—651111113K. Tymchenko—11119472
WJul 18 · 13:05K. Bondarenko—1117113K. Tymchenko—71510
WJun 6 · 18:35K. Bondarenko—111111113K. Tymchenko—137841
WJun 5 · 19:05K. Bondarenko—61111113K. Tymchenko—118391
WMay 24 · 17:35K. Bondarenko—1141112113K. Tymchenko—91191442
WMar 27 · 13:35K. Bondarenko—14118113K. Tymchenko—1261181
K. Bondarenko10
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.8311411422M. Gordeets1.83911711113LSep 4 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.4011911972A. Gorchakova2.75911711113WAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 17:35K. Bondarenko1.44711581A. Volgina2.6311611113LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.73116481M. Gordeets2.0091111113WAug 29 · 15:05K. Bondarenko1.081111912113A. Hordynska-Sheiko7.0059111462WAug 29 · 13:05K. Bondarenko1.4011117113O. Ivchenko2.75781131LAug 16 · 18:35A. Lapa3.2511116113K. Bondarenko1.33591151
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251191081A. Gorchakova1.3381112113WAug 30 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.38111211113V. Shevchuk1.531310581LAug 30 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.751147111A. Volgina1.4081111123
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