TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13074045
Played Sep 4Finished
Kateryna Bondarenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
171571113151161210
Anna Lapa
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:08 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Anna Lapa below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 117 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 70.7%
117 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 11–3 Anna Lapa Anna Lapa has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1646 vs Lapa 1451
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 40% vs Lapa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 40% vs Lapa 20%
Bondarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +1 · Lapa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.40 / Lapa 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Bondarenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13074045
Bondarenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Lapa2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko8wins
AwayLapa2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBondarenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%6 of 6
AwayLapa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko6Lapa4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko5Lapa5n = 10split evenly
S3Bondarenko5Lapa5n = 10split evenly
S4Bondarenko5Lapa3n = 8Bondarenko took 5 of 8
S5Bondarenko4Lapa0n = 4Bondarenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoLapaB − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.537.6+3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoLapaBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 122 vs 249 / 48468.9%51.5%84 / 122 vs 249 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.40/Lapa 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko—1771311123A. Lapa—1511156102
LAug 16 · 18:35K. Bondarenko—591151A. Lapa—11116113
LAug 7 · 15:05K. Bondarenko—9950A. Lapa—1111113
WAug 2 · 18:35K. Bondarenko—11129113A. Lapa—6101151
WJul 31 · 16:35K. Bondarenko—712114113A. Lapa—111081152
WJul 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko—11117133A. Lapa—9111111
WJun 12 · 18:35K. Bondarenko—691111113A. Lapa—11117862
WJun 5 · 16:35K. Bondarenko—1141111113A. Lapa—91111382
WMay 24 · 13:35K. Bondarenko—11119113A. Lapa—321191
WMay 15 · 17:35K. Bondarenko—1112113A. Lapa—91090
K. Bondarenko10
WSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.8311411422M. Gordeets1.83911711113LSep 4 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.4011911972A. Gorchakova2.75911711113WAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 17:35K. Bondarenko1.44711581A. Volgina2.6311611113LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.73116481M. Gordeets2.0091111113WAug 29 · 15:05K. Bondarenko1.081111912113A. Hordynska-Sheiko7.0059111462WAug 29 · 13:05K. Bondarenko1.4011117113O. Ivchenko2.75781131LAug 16 · 18:35A. Lapa3.2511116113K. Bondarenko1.33591151
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113WAug 16 · 18:35A. Lapa3.2511116113K. Bondarenko1.33591151
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