TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12439972
Played Aug 16Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115119611115––
Kateryna Bondarenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 86.7% is still 86.7%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
86.7%
86.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Kateryna Bondarenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 86.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 3–10 Kateryna Bondarenko Anna Lapa has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Bondarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Bondarenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1489 vs Bondarenko 1683
Bondarenko
Wrong
both rated, 194 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 20% vs Bondarenko 60%
Bondarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 30% vs Bondarenko 70%
Bondarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa +1 · Bondarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 87% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 3.25 / Bondarenko 1.33
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Bondarenko)+11.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12439972
Lapa3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Bondarenko1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa2wins
AwayBondarenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBondarenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa50%2 of 4
AwayBondarenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa4Bondarenko6n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Lapa5Bondarenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Lapa4Bondarenko6n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S4Lapa3Bondarenko5n = 8Bondarenko took 5 of 8
S5Lapa0Bondarenko3n = 3Bondarenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaBondarenkoL − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.8−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaBondarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 479 vs 79 / 11252.2%70.5%250 / 479 vs 79 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.941.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoLapa 3.25/Bondarenko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.9%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lapa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 18:35A. Lapa—11116113K. Bondarenko—591151
WAug 7 · 15:05A. Lapa—1111113K. Bondarenko—9950
LAug 2 · 18:35A. Lapa—6101151K. Bondarenko—11129113
LJul 31 · 16:35A. Lapa—111081152K. Bondarenko—712114113
LJul 26 · 17:05A. Lapa—9111111K. Bondarenko—11117133
LJun 12 · 18:35A. Lapa—11117862K. Bondarenko—691111113
LJun 5 · 16:35A. Lapa—91111382K. Bondarenko—1141111113
LMay 24 · 13:35A. Lapa—321191K. Bondarenko—11119113
LMay 15 · 17:35A. Lapa—91090K. Bondarenko—1112113
LMay 7 · 15:05A. Lapa—911901K. Bondarenko—1181133
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113
K. Bondarenko10
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102WSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.8311411422M. Gordeets1.83911711113LSep 4 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.4011911972A. Gorchakova2.75911711113WAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 17:35K. Bondarenko1.44711581A. Volgina2.6311611113LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.73116481M. Gordeets2.0091111113WAug 29 · 15:05K. Bondarenko1.081111912113A. Hordynska-Sheiko7.0059111462WAug 29 · 13:05K. Bondarenko1.4011117113O. Ivchenko2.75781131
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