TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13043048
Played Aug 30Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012611––––
Anna Gorchakova
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnna Gorchakova to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 58 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Anna Gorchakova at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 21–28 Anna Gorchakova Anna Lapa has won 21 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:28What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gorchakova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-28 in 49
Gorchakova
Correct
gap of 7 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1468 vs Gorchakova 1421
Lapa
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 40% vs Gorchakova 0%
Lapa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 40% vs Gorchakova 0%
Lapa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa -2 · Gorchakova -5
Gorchakova
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Gorchakova) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (0%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 2.63 / Gorchakova 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Gorchakova)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13043048
Lapa2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Gorchakova1.44
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa5wins
AwayGorchakova5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa60%3 of 5
AwayGorchakova60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa5Gorchakova5n = 10split evenly
S2Lapa5Gorchakova5n = 10split evenly
S3Lapa4Gorchakova6n = 10Gorchakova took 6 of 10
S4Lapa2Gorchakova5n = 7Gorchakova took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaGorchakovaL − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.533.8+0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 480 vs 185 / 40552.1%45.7%250 / 480 vs 185 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GorchakovaLapa 2.63/Gorchakova 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Gorchakova · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 16:35A. Lapa—211116123A. Gorchakova—113311102
LAug 16 · 12:35A. Lapa—67120A. Gorchakova—1111143
LAug 14 · 18:35A. Lapa—1111561A. Gorchakova—13611113
WAug 7 · 17:05A. Lapa—91111113A. Gorchakova—118261
LJul 26 · 12:35A. Lapa—119391A. Gorchakova—71111113
LJul 24 · 18:35A. Lapa—9870A. Gorchakova—1111113
WJun 27 · 15:35A. Lapa—11611113A. Gorchakova—611491
WJun 26 · 12:35A. Lapa—111166113A. Gorchakova—36111182
LJun 21 · 13:05A. Lapa—117661A. Gorchakova—61111113
WJun 14 · 18:35A. Lapa—1111113A. Gorchakova—7170
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113LAug 20 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.2511114113A. Lapa1.33971161
A. Gorchakova10
WSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113WSep 6 · 17:35A. Gorchakova4.00511119113V. Shevchuk1.2211791172WSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193LSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861LSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460LSep 5 · 16:35V. Shevchuk1.2511711113A. Gorchakova3.75611651LSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641WSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113
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