TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13079908
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleksandra Ivchenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
81111611674––
Anna Gorchakova
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:10 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandra Ivchenko above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-4
Point 64 set 4, 7-4 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 70.7%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandra Ivchenko 44–15 Anna Gorchakova Anna Gorchakova has won 15 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Ivchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-15 in 59
Ivchenko
Correct
gap of 29 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchenko 1572 vs Gorchakova 1457
Ivchenko
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchenko 40% vs Gorchakova 60%
Gorchakova
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchenko 60% vs Gorchakova 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchenko +1 · Gorchakova -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Ivchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchenko 1.40 / Gorchakova 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Ivchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13079908
Ivchenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Gorchakova2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchenko6wins
AwayGorchakova4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayGorchakova75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchenko6Gorchakova4n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S2Ivchenko6Gorchakova4n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S3Ivchenko7Gorchakova3n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S4Ivchenko2Gorchakova6n = 8Gorchakova took 6 of 8
S5Ivchenko3Gorchakova2n = 5Ivchenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchenkoGorchakovaI − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.140.1+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchenkoGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 566 vs 192 / 41962%45.8%351 / 566 vs 192 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.535.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoIvchenko 1.40/Gorchakova 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ivchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko—8111173A. Gorchakova—116641
LAug 30 · 19:05O. Ivchenko—1110111372A. Gorchakova—812515113
WAug 23 · 14:05O. Ivchenko—1111113A. Gorchakova—9970
WAug 22 · 15:05O. Ivchenko—111189133A. Gorchakova—871111112
WAug 16 · 14:35O. Ivchenko—1111113A. Gorchakova—7570
WAug 7 · 12:35O. Ivchenko—111493113A. Gorchakova—912111162
WJul 25 · 16:35O. Ivchenko—113146113A. Gorchakova—911121192
LJul 24 · 17:05O. Ivchenko—101011121A. Gorchakova—12124143
LJul 18 · 15:35O. Ivchenko—9411101A. Gorchakova—11118123
LJul 17 · 19:05O. Ivchenko—61181182A. Gorchakova—119114113
O. Ivchenko10
WSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113LSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.73136891V. Shevchuk2.00111111113LSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113LSep 5 · 17:35V. Shevchuk2.0011118113O. Ivchenko1.73491151LSep 5 · 15:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811711113O. Ivchenko1.3311211752WSep 5 · 13:35A. Volgina2.10118111192O. Ivchenko1.67131189113LAug 30 · 19:05A. Gorchakova2.75812515113O. Ivchenko1.401110111372LAug 30 · 18:05A. Volgina2.1011126113O. Ivchenko1.678101151
A. Gorchakova10
WSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113WSep 6 · 17:35A. Gorchakova4.00511119113V. Shevchuk1.2211791172WSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193LSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861LSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460LSep 5 · 16:35V. Shevchuk1.2511711113A. Gorchakova3.75611651LSep 5 · 12:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811611113A. Gorchakova1.3311711992WAug 30 · 19:05A. Gorchakova2.75812515113O. Ivchenko1.401110111372
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