TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13043060
Played Aug 30Finished
Anna Gorchakova
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81112105111513117
Oleksandra Ivchenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnna Gorchakova above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 103 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 70.7%
103 points played in total.
H2H Anna Gorchakova 14–43 Oleksandra Ivchenko Anna Gorchakova has won 14 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Ivchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-43 in 57
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 29 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gorchakova 1468 vs Ivchenko 1593
Ivchenko
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gorchakova 40% vs Ivchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gorchakova 20% vs Ivchenko 60%
Ivchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gorchakova +1 · Ivchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Ivchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGorchakova 2.75 / Ivchenko 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Ivchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13043060
Gorchakova2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Ivchenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGorchakova3wins
AwayIvchenko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGorchakova100%3 of 3
AwayIvchenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gorchakova3Ivchenko7n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S2Gorchakova4Ivchenko6n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S3Gorchakova5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Gorchakova5Ivchenko3n = 8Gorchakova took 5 of 8
S5Gorchakova1Ivchenko4n = 5Ivchenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGorchakovaIvchenkoG − IBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.942.0−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGorchakovaIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 408 vs 356 / 57145.8%62.4%187 / 408 vs 356 / 571Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoGorchakova 2.75/Ivchenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 14:05A. Gorchakova—9970O. Ivchenko—1111113
LAug 22 · 15:05A. Gorchakova—871111112O. Ivchenko—111189133
LAug 16 · 14:35A. Gorchakova—7570O. Ivchenko—1111113
LAug 7 · 12:35A. Gorchakova—912111162O. Ivchenko—111493113
LJul 25 · 16:35A. Gorchakova—911121192O. Ivchenko—113146113
WJul 24 · 17:05A. Gorchakova—12124143O. Ivchenko—101011121
WJul 18 · 15:35A. Gorchakova—11118123O. Ivchenko—9411101
WJul 17 · 19:05A. Gorchakova—119114113O. Ivchenko—61181182
LJul 5 · 17:35A. Gorchakova—1012111192O. Ivchenko—1210513113
LJun 28 · 14:35A. Gorchakova—891151O. Ivchenko—11114113
A. Gorchakova10
WSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113WSep 6 · 17:35A. Gorchakova4.00511119113V. Shevchuk1.2211791172WSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193LSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861LSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460LSep 5 · 16:35V. Shevchuk1.2511711113A. Gorchakova3.75611651LSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641LSep 5 · 12:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811611113A. Gorchakova1.3311711992
O. Ivchenko10
WSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113LSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.73136891V. Shevchuk2.00111111113LSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113LSep 5 · 17:35V. Shevchuk2.0011118113O. Ivchenko1.73491151LSep 5 · 15:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811711113O. Ivchenko1.3311211752WSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641WSep 5 · 13:35A. Volgina2.10118111192O. Ivchenko1.67131189113LAug 30 · 18:05A. Volgina2.1011126113O. Ivchenko1.678101151
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