TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13079909
Played Sep 5Finished
Viktoria Shevchuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119811115––
Oleksandra Ivchenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:09 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingViktoria Shevchuk above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 55.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Viktoria Shevchuk 15–23 Oleksandra Ivchenko Viktoria Shevchuk has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ivchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-23 in 38
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shevchuk 1608 vs Ivchenko 1596
Shevchuk
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shevchuk 60% vs Ivchenko 40%
Shevchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shevchuk 60% vs Ivchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shevchuk +1 · Ivchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Ivchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShevchuk 2.00 / Ivchenko 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Ivchenko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13079909
Shevchuk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Ivchenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShevchuk3wins
AwayIvchenko7wins
8 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShevchuk33.3%2 of 6
AwayIvchenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shevchuk6Ivchenko4n = 10Shevchuk took 6 of 10
S2Shevchuk5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Shevchuk5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Shevchuk2Ivchenko8n = 10Ivchenko took 8 of 10
S5Shevchuk3Ivchenko5n = 8Ivchenko took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShevchukIvchenkoS − IBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.446.6−3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShevchukIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 268 vs 352 / 56757.1%62.1%153 / 268 vs 352 / 567Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoShevchuk 2.00/Ivchenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shevchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 16:05V. Shevchuk—116741O. Ivchenko—51111113
WAug 22 · 16:05V. Shevchuk—131383113O. Ivchenko—1111111152
LAug 15 · 16:05V. Shevchuk—61413131O. Ivchenko—111611153
LAug 7 · 14:35V. Shevchuk—771111112O. Ivchenko—111149133
WAug 1 · 13:35V. Shevchuk—711612113O. Ivchenko—112111082
LJul 25 · 14:35V. Shevchuk—51111272O. Ivchenko—114511113
WJul 24 · 16:05V. Shevchuk—1111107113O. Ivchenko—67121192
LJul 17 · 15:05V. Shevchuk—111178102O. Ivchenko—881111123
LJul 11 · 19:05V. Shevchuk—14811252O. Ivchenko—1211611113
LJul 10 · 17:35V. Shevchuk—11511992O. Ivchenko—611911113
V. Shevchuk10
WSep 6 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.101161011123M. Gordeets1.67811125102LSep 6 · 17:35A. Gorchakova4.00511119113V. Shevchuk1.2211791172WSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123WSep 6 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.73136891V. Shevchuk2.00111111113WSep 5 · 18:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko5.50291171V. Shevchuk1.1311117113WSep 5 · 16:35V. Shevchuk1.2511711113A. Gorchakova3.75611651LSep 5 · 15:05V. Shevchuk1.91101191152A. Volgina1.80126116113LSep 5 · 13:05V. Shevchuk2.001681151M. Gordeets1.7318115113WAug 30 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.00121114113A. Volgina1.731441281
O. Ivchenko10
WSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113LSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.73136891V. Shevchuk2.00111111113LSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113LSep 5 · 15:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811711113O. Ivchenko1.3311211752WSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641WSep 5 · 13:35A. Volgina2.10118111192O. Ivchenko1.67131189113LAug 30 · 19:05A. Gorchakova2.75812515113O. Ivchenko1.401110111372LAug 30 · 18:05A. Volgina2.1011126113O. Ivchenko1.678101151
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