TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12461428
Played Aug 20Finished
Ksenia Tymchenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117411116––
Anna Lapa
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:59 and never touched — 79.7% is still 79.7%
Graded at full timeAnna Lapa to win
79.7%
79.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Anna Lapa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Anna Lapa at 79.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 12–39 Anna Lapa Ksenia Tymchenko has won 12 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lapa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-39 in 51
Lapa
Wrong
gap of 27 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1426 vs Lapa 1500
Lapa
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 20% vs Lapa 60%
Lapa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 20% vs Lapa 40%
Lapa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko -1 · Lapa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Lapa) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lapa form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 3.25 / Lapa 1.33
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Lapa)+10.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12461428
Tymchenko3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Lapa1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko2wins
AwayLapa8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko40%2 of 5
AwayLapa100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko5Lapa5n = 10split evenly
S2Tymchenko2Lapa8n = 10Lapa took 8 of 10
S3Tymchenko3Lapa7n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S4Tymchenko2Lapa6n = 8Lapa took 6 of 8
S5Tymchenko2Lapa2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoLapaT − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.1−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoLapaBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 415 vs 252 / 48333.7%52.2%140 / 415 vs 252 / 483Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LapaTymchenko 3.25/Lapa 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.7%
Lapa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tymchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 17:05K. Tymchenko—710100A. Lapa—1112123
LAug 2 · 15:05K. Tymchenko—8240A. Lapa—1111113
LJul 31 · 18:35K. Tymchenko—116851A. Lapa—31111113
LJul 19 · 15:05K. Tymchenko—1165101A. Lapa—61111123
LJul 3 · 16:35K. Tymchenko—791115112A. Lapa—1111713133
LJun 7 · 16:35K. Tymchenko—1211881A. Lapa—14411113
WJun 5 · 15:05K. Tymchenko—111193113A. Lapa—75111172
LMay 29 · 18:35K. Tymchenko—114131292A. Lapa—13111110113
WMay 24 · 15:05K. Tymchenko—1110116113A. Lapa—61281192
LMay 9 · 06:55K. Tymchenko—117971A. Lapa—61111113
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251191081A. Gorchakova1.3381112113WAug 30 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.38111211113V. Shevchuk1.531310581
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113
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