TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13073985
Played Sep 4Finished
Ksenia Tymchenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711114711711––
Margarita Gordeets
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Margarita Gordeets at 65.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 29–39 Margarita Gordeets Ksenia Tymchenko has won 29 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-39 in 68
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 10 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1525 vs Gordeets 1644
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 60% vs Gordeets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 60% vs Gordeets 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko -1 · Gordeets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Gordeets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 2.50 / Gordeets 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Gordeets)+3.2pp
Setka Cup Women · #13073985
Tymchenko2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gordeets1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko6wins
AwayGordeets4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko80%4 of 5
AwayGordeets60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko5Gordeets5n = 10split evenly
S2Tymchenko4Gordeets6n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S3Tymchenko5Gordeets5n = 10split evenly
S4Tymchenko4Gordeets3n = 7Tymchenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoGordeetsT − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.3+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 411 vs 358 / 62235%57.6%144 / 411 vs 358 / 622Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsTymchenko 2.50/Gordeets 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 17:35K. Tymchenko—12612113M. Gordeets—10111091
WAug 20 · 15:35K. Tymchenko—611117113M. Gordeets—11391172
LAug 15 · 16:35K. Tymchenko—811841M. Gordeets—11311113
WAug 2 · 13:35K. Tymchenko—1112113M. Gordeets—61070
WJul 19 · 13:35K. Tymchenko—611611113M. Gordeets—11611982
LJul 18 · 15:05K. Tymchenko—1177101M. Gordeets—51111123
LJul 11 · 13:05K. Tymchenko—510100M. Gordeets—1112123
WJul 10 · 12:35K. Tymchenko—111511123M. Gordeets—5176101
WJul 4 · 14:05K. Tymchenko—15811113M. Gordeets—1311981
LJun 7 · 14:35K. Tymchenko—87110M. Gordeets—1111133
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251191081A. Gorchakova1.3381112113WAug 30 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.38111211113V. Shevchuk1.531310581LAug 30 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.751147111A. Volgina1.4081111123
M. Gordeets10
LSep 6 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.101161011123M. Gordeets1.67811125102WSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100WSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113WSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193WSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113WSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460WSep 5 · 16:05A. Volgina1.737960M. Gordeets2.001111113LSep 5 · 14:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.00971111113M. Gordeets1.2211119892WSep 5 · 13:05V. Shevchuk2.001681151M. Gordeets1.7318115113WSep 4 · 19:35A. Volgina1.8061080M. Gordeets1.911112113
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