TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13043050
Played Aug 30Finished
Ksenia Tymchenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189111012811––
Anna Gorchakova
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:27 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeAnna Gorchakova to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Anna Gorchakova at 71.6%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 6–30 Anna Gorchakova Ksenia Tymchenko has won 6 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:27What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Gorchakova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-30 in 36
Gorchakova
Correct
gap of 24 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1534 vs Gorchakova 1440
Tymchenko
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 60% vs Gorchakova 20%
Tymchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 60% vs Gorchakova 10%
Tymchenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko +1 · Gorchakova -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Gorchakova) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 3.25 / Gorchakova 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Gorchakova)+1.3pp
Setka Cup Women · #13043050
Tymchenko3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gorchakova1.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko1wins
AwayGorchakova9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGorchakova leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko0%0 of 3
AwayGorchakova85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko3Gorchakova7n = 10Gorchakova took 7 of 10
S2Tymchenko2Gorchakova8n = 10Gorchakova took 8 of 10
S3Tymchenko1Gorchakova9n = 10Gorchakova took 9 of 10
S4Tymchenko2Gorchakova4n = 6Gorchakova took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoGorchakovaT − GBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.439.8−7.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 416 vs 186 / 40735.1%45.7%146 / 416 vs 186 / 407Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GorchakovaTymchenko 3.25/Gorchakova 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.2%
Gorchakova · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 19:05K. Tymchenko—9960A. Gorchakova—1111113
LJul 18 · 18:35K. Tymchenko—791191A. Gorchakova—11119113
LJun 5 · 17:05K. Tymchenko—11771162A. Gorchakova—611118113
LMay 29 · 12:35K. Tymchenko—91070A. Gorchakova—1112113
LMay 23 · 17:05K. Tymchenko—115551A. Gorchakova—71111113
LMay 8 · 17:05K. Tymchenko—10390A. Gorchakova—1211113
LApr 30 · 12:35K. Tymchenko—911471A. Gorchakova—11611113
WApr 3 · 18:35K. Tymchenko—8111211113A. Gorchakova—11914872
LMar 26 · 15:05K. Tymchenko—13118101A. Gorchakova—111311123
LMar 21 · 19:05K. Tymchenko—6790A. Gorchakova—1111113
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671WAug 30 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.38111211113V. Shevchuk1.531310581LAug 30 · 14:05K. Tymchenko2.751147111A. Volgina1.4081111123
A. Gorchakova10
WSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113WSep 6 · 17:35A. Gorchakova4.00511119113V. Shevchuk1.2211791172WSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193LSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861LSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460LSep 5 · 16:35V. Shevchuk1.2511711113A. Gorchakova3.75611651LSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641WSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113
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