TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13043046
Played Aug 30Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161311811311911
Anastasiia Volgina
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:30 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeAnastasiia Volgina to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Anastasiia Volgina below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Anastasiia Volgina at 60.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 47–55 Anastasiia Volgina Anna Lapa has won 47 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Volgina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-55 in 102
Volgina
Correct
gap of 8 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1474 vs Volgina 1681
Volgina
Correct
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 40% vs Volgina 100%
Volgina
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 40% vs Volgina 80%
Volgina
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa -1 · Volgina +5
Volgina
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Volgina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volgina form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 2.20 / Volgina 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Volgina)+2.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13043046
Lapa2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Volgina1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa3wins
AwayVolgina7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVolgina leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa37.5%3 of 8
AwayVolginan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa8Volgina2n = 10Lapa took 8 of 10
S2Lapa2Volgina8n = 10Volgina took 8 of 10
S3Lapa3Volgina7n = 10Volgina took 7 of 10
S4Lapa1Volgina6n = 7Volgina took 6 of 7
S5Lapa2Volgina2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaVolginaL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.340.4−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaVolginaBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 479 vs 366 / 64852.2%56.5%250 / 479 vs 366 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolginaLapa 2.20/Volgina 1.61
Miss
What we said
60.5%
Volgina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volgina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 13:05A. Lapa—1191211113A. Volgina—611101382
LAug 7 · 16:05A. Lapa—117771A. Volgina—81111113
LJul 31 · 13:05A. Lapa—119791A. Volgina—71111113
LJul 26 · 15:35A. Lapa—9770A. Volgina—1111113
LJul 24 · 16:35A. Lapa—106110A. Volgina—1211133
LJul 19 · 13:05A. Lapa—11143872A. Volgina—6121111113
LJul 3 · 15:05A. Lapa—11811992A. Volgina—911511113
WJun 27 · 12:35A. Lapa—1211113A. Volgina—10750
LJun 26 · 17:05A. Lapa—117731A. Volgina—91111113
WJun 21 · 15:05A. Lapa—116911113A. Volgina—71111872
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 20 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.2511114113A. Lapa1.33971161
A. Volgina10
WSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861WSep 5 · 17:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7512971A. Volgina1.251411112LSep 5 · 16:05A. Volgina1.737960M. Gordeets2.001111113WSep 5 · 15:05V. Shevchuk1.91101191152A. Volgina1.80126116113LSep 5 · 13:35A. Volgina2.10118111192O. Ivchenko1.67131189113LSep 4 · 19:35A. Volgina1.8061080M. Gordeets1.911112113WSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113WSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 14:35A. Volgina1.36111189102A. Gorchakova3.00961111123LSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112
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