TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13073931
Played Sep 4Finished
Kateryna Bondarenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119411117411211
Margarita Gordeets
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 81 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Margarita Gordeets at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 7–12 Margarita Gordeets Kateryna Bondarenko has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1646 vs Gordeets 1671
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 40% vs Gordeets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 50% vs Gordeets 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -1 · Gordeets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gordeets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.83 / Gordeets 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gordeets)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #13073931
Bondarenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Gordeets1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko3wins
AwayGordeets7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko33.3%2 of 6
AwayGordeets75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko6Gordeets4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko5Gordeets5n = 10split evenly
S3Bondarenko4Gordeets6n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S4Bondarenko3Gordeets7n = 10Gordeets took 7 of 10
S5Bondarenko1Gordeets3n = 4Gordeets took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoGordeetsB − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.243.5−5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 122 vs 359 / 62168.9%57.8%84 / 122 vs 359 / 621Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match41.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsBondarenko 1.83/Gordeets 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 14:05K. Bondarenko—11411422M. Gordeets—911711113
LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko—116481M. Gordeets—91111113
WAug 2 · 15:35K. Bondarenko—11118113M. Gordeets—671151
WAug 1 · 13:05K. Bondarenko—11144113M. Gordeets—6121191
LJul 31 · 19:05K. Bondarenko—11111171M. Gordeets—91313113
LJul 18 · 16:05K. Bondarenko—81111962M. Gordeets—114811113
LJul 17 · 14:05K. Bondarenko—511671M. Gordeets—11611113
LJul 5 · 12:35K. Bondarenko—12661192M. Gordeets—1011119113
LJun 20 · 16:35K. Bondarenko—271161M. Gordeets—11119113
WJun 12 · 14:05K. Bondarenko—911187113M. Gordeets—118161172
K. Bondarenko10
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102WSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.4011911972A. Gorchakova2.75911711113WAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 17:35K. Bondarenko1.44711581A. Volgina2.6311611113LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.73116481M. Gordeets2.0091111113WAug 29 · 15:05K. Bondarenko1.081111912113A. Hordynska-Sheiko7.0059111462WAug 29 · 13:05K. Bondarenko1.4011117113O. Ivchenko2.75781131LAug 16 · 18:35A. Lapa3.2511116113K. Bondarenko1.33591151
M. Gordeets10
LSep 6 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.101161011123M. Gordeets1.67811125102WSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100WSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113WSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193WSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113WSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460WSep 5 · 16:05A. Volgina1.737960M. Gordeets2.001111113LSep 5 · 14:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.00971111113M. Gordeets1.2211119892WSep 5 · 13:05V. Shevchuk2.001681151M. Gordeets1.7318115113WAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.73116481M. Gordeets2.0091111113
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