TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13038380
Played Aug 29Finished
Kateryna Bondarenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118711113––
Oleksandra Ivchenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 69 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 67.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 14–3 Oleksandra Ivchenko Oleksandra Ivchenko has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-3 in 17
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1683 vs Ivchenko 1674
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 60% vs Ivchenko 80%
Ivchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 60% vs Ivchenko 80%
Ivchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -1 · Ivchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.40 / Ivchenko 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Bondarenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13038380
Bondarenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Ivchenko2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko9wins
AwayIvchenko1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBondarenko leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%5 of 5
AwayIvchenko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Bondarenko6Ivchenko4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S3Bondarenko7Ivchenko3n = 10Bondarenko took 7 of 10
S4Bondarenko7Ivchenko2n = 9Bondarenko took 7 of 9
S5Bondarenko4Ivchenko1n = 5Bondarenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoIvchenkoB − IBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.039.0+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 112 vs 353 / 56670.5%62.4%79 / 112 vs 353 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.52.3per matchAvg pointsper match41.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.40/Ivchenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 17:35K. Bondarenko—451111153O. Ivchenko—111167132
WAug 7 · 16:35K. Bondarenko—11411113O. Ivchenko—611781
WAug 1 · 15:05K. Bondarenko—811119113O. Ivchenko—11971172
WJul 31 · 14:35K. Bondarenko—811124113O. Ivchenko—119101192
WJul 18 · 19:35K. Bondarenko—11111111113O. Ivchenko—13913242
WJul 17 · 17:05K. Bondarenko—111311113O. Ivchenko—915671
WJul 5 · 15:35K. Bondarenko—11158113O. Ivchenko—7131181
WJun 20 · 14:35K. Bondarenko—1111123O. Ivchenko—49100
WJun 12 · 15:35K. Bondarenko—111110113O. Ivchenko—441271
LJun 6 · 15:35K. Bondarenko—5101111112O. Ivchenko—111248133
K. Bondarenko10
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102WSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.6171131192A. Volgina2.20113117113LSep 4 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.8311411422M. Gordeets1.83911711113LSep 4 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.4011911972A. Gorchakova2.75911711113WAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 17:35K. Bondarenko1.44711581A. Volgina2.6311611113LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko1.73116481M. Gordeets2.0091111113WAug 29 · 15:05K. Bondarenko1.081111912113A. Hordynska-Sheiko7.0059111462LAug 16 · 18:35A. Lapa3.2511116113K. Bondarenko1.33591151
O. Ivchenko10
WSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113LSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:35O. Ivchenko1.73136891V. Shevchuk2.00111111113LSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113LSep 5 · 17:35V. Shevchuk2.0011118113O. Ivchenko1.73491151LSep 5 · 15:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811711113O. Ivchenko1.3311211752WSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641WSep 5 · 13:35A. Volgina2.10118111192O. Ivchenko1.67131189113LAug 30 · 19:05A. Gorchakova2.75812515113O. Ivchenko1.401110111372
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