TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12461441
Played Aug 20Finished
Olena Bondareva
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8118111210311––
Anna Gorchakova
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:59 and never touched — 88.9% is still 88.9%
Graded at full timeAnna Gorchakova to win
88.9%
88.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOlena Bondareva above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 74 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Anna Gorchakova at 88.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Olena Bondareva 5–23 Anna Gorchakova Olena Bondareva has won 5 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Gorchakova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-23 in 28
Gorchakova
Correct
gap of 18 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondareva 1437 vs Gorchakova 1545
Gorchakova
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondareva 40% vs Gorchakova 60%
Gorchakova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondareva 30% vs Gorchakova 70%
Gorchakova
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondareva +1 · Gorchakova -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Gorchakova)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondareva 3.50 / Gorchakova 1.28
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Gorchakova)+15.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12461441
Bondareva3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Gorchakova1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondareva2wins
AwayGorchakova8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGorchakova leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarevan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayGorchakova80%8 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondareva0Gorchakova10n = 10Gorchakova took 10 of 10
S2Bondareva5Gorchakova5n = 10split evenly
S3Bondareva2Gorchakova8n = 10Gorchakova took 8 of 10
S4Bondareva1Gorchakova4n = 5Gorchakova took 4 of 5
S5Bondareva2Gorchakova1n = 3Bondareva took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarevaGorchakovaB − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match30.439.4−9.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarevaGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 296 vs 184 / 39339.5%46.8%117 / 296 vs 184 / 393Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GorchakovaBondareva 3.50/Gorchakova 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.9%
Gorchakova · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 17:05O. Bondareva—715751A. Gorchakova—111311113
LJun 28 · 16:35O. Bondareva—71111722A. Gorchakova—115711113
LJun 26 · 16:35O. Bondareva—1011571A. Gorchakova—1291183
WJun 14 · 15:05O. Bondareva—814118113A. Gorchakova—111231192
LApr 30 · 19:05O. Bondareva—7560A. Gorchakova—1111113
LApr 24 · 19:05O. Bondareva—3510A. Gorchakova—111133
LApr 18 · 16:35O. Bondareva—91030A. Gorchakova—111293
LApr 10 · 19:05O. Bondareva—7860A. Gorchakova—1111113
LApr 4 · 19:05O. Bondareva—21070A. Gorchakova—1112113
WMar 26 · 17:05O. Bondareva—1016513143A. Gorchakova—12141111122
O. Bondareva10
LSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100LSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123LAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 14:05O. Bondareva4.00127591O. Ivchenko1.22101111113LAug 29 · 12:35O. Bondareva4.00111144152M. Gordeets1.22881111173WAug 20 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.509580O. Bondareva1.281111113LAug 20 · 16:05O. Bondareva3.259790V. Shevchuk1.331111113WAug 20 · 15:05A. Lapa1.3311711292O. Bondareva3.25911611113
A. Gorchakova10
WSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113WSep 6 · 17:35A. Gorchakova4.00511119113V. Shevchuk1.2211791172WSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 15:05A. Gorchakova2.75111011113O. Ivchenko1.40712581LSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193LSep 5 · 19:05A. Volgina1.3691211113A. Gorchakova3.001110861LSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460LSep 5 · 16:35V. Shevchuk1.2511711113A. Gorchakova3.75611651LSep 5 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.408111173A. Gorchakova2.75116641LSep 5 · 12:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.25811611113A. Gorchakova1.3311711992
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