TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13038644
Played Aug 29Finished
Olena Bondareva
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181184114111517
Margarita Gordeets
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:59 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOlena Bondareva above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 100 set 5, 15-17 — our read held Margarita Gordeets at 81.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Olena Bondareva 15–38 Margarita Gordeets Olena Bondareva has won 15 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-38 in 53
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 23 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondareva 1428 vs Gordeets 1663
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 235 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondareva 40% vs Gordeets 60%
Gordeets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondareva 20% vs Gordeets 60%
Gordeets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondareva -1 · Gordeets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Gordeets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondareva 4.00 / Gordeets 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Gordeets)+4.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13038644
Bondareva4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Gordeets1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondareva2wins
AwayGordeets8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarevan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGordeets87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondareva2Gordeets8n = 10Gordeets took 8 of 10
S2Bondareva2Gordeets8n = 10Gordeets took 8 of 10
S3Bondareva1Gordeets9n = 10Gordeets took 9 of 10
S4Bondareva3Gordeets1n = 4Bondareva took 3 of 4
S5Bondareva2Gordeets2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarevaGordeetsB − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.639.0−10.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarevaGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 292 vs 360 / 62639.7%57.5%116 / 292 vs 360 / 626Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsBondareva 4.00/Gordeets 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 14:35O. Bondareva—6430M. Gordeets—1111113
LJul 10 · 19:05O. Bondareva—5660M. Gordeets—1111113
LJun 28 · 13:05O. Bondareva—9730M. Gordeets—1111113
WJun 26 · 13:05O. Bondareva—712611123M. Gordeets—1110114102
LJun 20 · 15:05O. Bondareva—5840M. Gordeets—1111113
WJun 14 · 13:35O. Bondareva—117811113M. Gordeets—91111972
LJun 7 · 13:35O. Bondareva—2670M. Gordeets—1111113
LMay 30 · 12:35O. Bondareva—813119102M. Gordeets—1111911123
LMay 15 · 19:05O. Bondareva—11841172M. Gordeets—911113113
LApr 30 · 13:35O. Bondareva—5840M. Gordeets—1111113
O. Bondareva10
LSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100LSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123LAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 14:05O. Bondareva4.00127591O. Ivchenko1.22101111113LAug 20 · 19:05O. Bondareva3.50881231A. Gorchakova1.28111110113WAug 20 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.509580O. Bondareva1.281111113LAug 20 · 16:05O. Bondareva3.259790V. Shevchuk1.331111113WAug 20 · 15:05A. Lapa1.3311711292O. Bondareva3.25911611113
M. Gordeets10
LSep 6 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.101161011123M. Gordeets1.67811125102WSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100WSep 6 · 16:05O. Ivchenko1.91581181M. Gordeets1.8011116113WSep 6 · 13:05A. Gorchakova3.7511511762M. Gordeets1.2561131193WSep 5 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0079111242M. Gordeets1.731111510113WSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.281111113A. Gorchakova3.509460WSep 5 · 16:05A. Volgina1.737960M. Gordeets2.001111113LSep 5 · 14:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko4.00971111113M. Gordeets1.2211119892WSep 5 · 13:05V. Shevchuk2.001681151M. Gordeets1.7318115113WSep 4 · 19:35A. Volgina1.8061080M. Gordeets1.911112113
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