TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12461452
Played Aug 20Finished
Ksenia Tymchenko
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511811––––
Olena Bondareva
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched — 81.9% is still 81.9%
Graded at full timeOlena Bondareva to win
81.9%
81.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Olena Bondareva below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Olena Bondareva at 81.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 5–28 Olena Bondareva Ksenia Tymchenko has won 5 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:00What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Bondareva
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-28 in 33
Bondareva
Correct
gap of 23 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1442 vs Bondareva 1421
Tymchenko
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 20% vs Bondareva 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 20% vs Bondareva 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko +1 · Bondareva -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Bondareva)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondareva form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 3.50 / Bondareva 1.28
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Bondareva)+8.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12461452
Tymchenko3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Bondareva1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko3wins
AwayBondareva7wins
Bondareva leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko75%3 of 4
AwayBondareva100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko4Bondareva6n = 10Bondareva took 6 of 10
S2Tymchenko3Bondareva7n = 10Bondareva took 7 of 10
S3Tymchenko4Bondareva6n = 10Bondareva took 6 of 10
S4Tymchenko1Bondareva3n = 4Bondareva took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoBondarevaT − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.733.9−4.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoBondarevaBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 414 vs 116 / 29533.8%39.3%140 / 414 vs 116 / 295Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarevaTymchenko 3.50/Bondareva 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.9%
Bondareva · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bondareva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 19:05K. Tymchenko—1111133O. Bondareva—76110
LJul 10 · 17:05K. Tymchenko—6101151O. Bondareva—11124113
LJul 3 · 12:35K. Tymchenko—11101161O. Bondareva—81213113
LJun 7 · 19:05K. Tymchenko—841111O. Bondareva—11115113
LMay 9 · 07:55K. Tymchenko—131180O. Bondareva—1513113
LApr 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko—5660O. Bondareva—1111113
WApr 2 · 16:05K. Tymchenko—11119113O. Bondareva—931161
LMar 26 · 18:05K. Tymchenko—59130O. Bondareva—1111153
WMar 21 · 20:05K. Tymchenko—1211113O. Bondareva—10950
LMar 14 · 20:05K. Tymchenko—8260O. Bondareva—1111113
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113LSep 6 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.50451131V. Shevchuk1.5011117113LSep 4 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.256960A. Gorchakova1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.2211116593K. Tymchenko4.0099111162LSep 4 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.50711771M. Gordeets1.5011411113LSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.631110611133A. Volgina1.44512116112WAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.251191081A. Gorchakova1.3381112113WAug 30 · 15:35K. Tymchenko2.38111211113V. Shevchuk1.531310581
O. Bondareva10
LSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100LSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123LAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 14:05O. Bondareva4.00127591O. Ivchenko1.22101111113LAug 29 · 12:35O. Bondareva4.00111144152M. Gordeets1.22881111173LAug 20 · 19:05O. Bondareva3.50881231A. Gorchakova1.28111110113LAug 20 · 16:05O. Bondareva3.259790V. Shevchuk1.331111113WAug 20 · 15:05A. Lapa1.3311711292O. Bondareva3.25911611113
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