TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12461417
Played Aug 20Finished
Anna Lapa
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711116211911
Olena Bondareva
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:03 and never touched — 79.7% is still 79.7%
Graded at full timeAnna Lapa to win
79.7%
79.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnna Lapa above · Olena Bondareva below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Anna Lapa at 79.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Anna Lapa 37–9 Olena Bondareva Olena Bondareva has won 9 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lapa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-9 in 46
Lapa
Wrong
gap of 28 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lapa 1478 vs Bondareva 1416
Lapa
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lapa 40% vs Bondareva 0%
Lapa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lapa 30% vs Bondareva 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lapa -1 · Bondareva -5
Bondareva
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Lapa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondareva form (0%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLapa 1.33 / Bondareva 3.25
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Lapa)+8.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12461417
Lapa1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Bondareva3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLapa8wins
AwayBondareva2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLapa71.4%5 of 7
AwayBondareva0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lapa7Bondareva3n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S2Lapa3Bondareva7n = 10Bondareva took 7 of 10
S3Lapa10Bondareva0n = 10Lapa took 10 of 10
S4Lapa5Bondareva4n = 9Lapa took 5 of 9
S5Lapa3Bondareva2n = 5Lapa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLapaBondarevaL − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.039.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLapaBondarevaBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 480 vs 115 / 29352.1%39.3%250 / 480 vs 115 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LapaLapa 1.33/Bondareva 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.7%
Lapa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bondareva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 15:05A. Lapa—11813113O. Bondareva—8111181
LAug 2 · 16:35A. Lapa—11811652O. Bondareva—911511113
WJul 3 · 18:35A. Lapa—1110119113O. Bondareva—31271182
WJun 26 · 18:35A. Lapa—91111143O. Bondareva—1156121
WJun 14 · 17:05A. Lapa—51111113O. Bondareva—116251
WJun 7 · 15:05A. Lapa—8101111113O. Bondareva—11128772
LMay 15 · 15:05A. Lapa—11713362O. Bondareva—6111111113
WMay 9 · 12:25A. Lapa—1310119113O. Bondareva—111291162
WApr 26 · 17:05A. Lapa—1311133O. Bondareva—118110
WApr 24 · 17:05A. Lapa—11611113O. Bondareva—811991
A. Lapa10
LSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.401771311123A. Lapa2.751511156102LSep 4 · 17:35A. Lapa2.201071151A. Volgina1.6112116113LSep 4 · 16:35A. Lapa2.2010870A. Gorchakova1.611211113WSep 4 · 15:05A. Lapa1.4017811113K. Tymchenko2.751511481WSep 4 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011611133M. Gordeets1.618116111LAug 30 · 18:35K. Tymchenko2.63111111113A. Lapa1.44913671LAug 30 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25811371V. Shevchuk1.3311611113LAug 30 · 16:35A. Lapa2.631191161O. Ivchenko1.4413115113LAug 30 · 15:05A. Lapa2.6381060A. Gorchakova1.441112113LAug 30 · 13:05A. Lapa2.2011138392A. Volgina1.616111111113
O. Bondareva10
LSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100LSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123LAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 14:05O. Bondareva4.00127591O. Ivchenko1.22101111113LAug 29 · 12:35O. Bondareva4.00111144152M. Gordeets1.22881111173LAug 20 · 19:05O. Bondareva3.50881231A. Gorchakova1.28111110113WAug 20 · 17:05K. Tymchenko3.509580O. Bondareva1.281111113LAug 20 · 16:05O. Bondareva3.259790V. Shevchuk1.331111113
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