TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155344
Played Sep 19Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118118––––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleh Stopin at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 12–9 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:26What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Stopin
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1212 vs Varchenko 1179
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 60% vs Varchenko 80%
Varchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 60% vs Varchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin -1 · Varchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stopin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 1.83 / Varchenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stopin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13155344
Stopin1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Varchenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStopin4wins
AwayVarchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVarchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin66.7%2 of 3
AwayVarchenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S2Stopin4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S3Stopin6Varchenko4n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S4Stopin4Varchenko3n = 7Stopin took 4 of 7
S5Stopin1Varchenko2n = 3Varchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStopinVarchenkoS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.338.5−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 276 vs 102 / 22752.9%44.9%146 / 276 vs 102 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StopinStopin 1.83/Varchenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin4281211113V. Varchenko311110821
LAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin42611101142V. Varchenko42114124113
LAug 16 · 10:05O. Stopin5411111011112V. Varchenko50841213133
LAug 2 · 08:20O. Stopin378101181V. Varchenko4211128113
LJul 31 · 14:30O. Stopin207850V. Varchenko331111113
WJul 15 · 13:00O. Stopin341111123V. Varchenko2899100
WJul 11 · 05:30O. Stopin4312911113V. Varchenko351011951
LApr 26 · 07:35O. Stopin27941131V. Varchenko4111118113
LMar 29 · 13:10O. Stopin2491320V. Varchenko371115113
WMar 22 · 16:10O. Stopin506101211113V. Varchenko46111210762
O. Stopin10
LSep 19 · 10:20V. Stukalov1.5711118133O. Stopin2.258811111LSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113WSep 13 · 10:05V. Varchenko2.63441211133S. Semenets1.441111104112WSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123LSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821
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