TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155005
Played Sep 19Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196119111311115
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 97 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 62.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 9–15 Volodymyr Varchenko Vladyslav Stukalov has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Varchenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1192 vs Varchenko 1179
Stukalov
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Varchenko 100%
Varchenko
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 40% vs Varchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov +1 · Varchenko +5
Varchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Varchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.38 / Varchenko 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Varchenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155005
Stukalov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 104 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 80
Varchenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite48% won 22 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it64% 18 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwayVarchenko4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%3 of 3
AwayVarchenko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S2Stukalov6Varchenko4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov7Varchenko2n = 9Stukalov took 7 of 9
S5Stukalov4Varchenko2n = 6Stukalov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovVarchenkoS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.843.1−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 827 vs 102 / 22750.1%44.9%414 / 827 vs 102 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoStukalov 2.38/Varchenko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov50116913113V. Varchenko47911111152
LSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov2461170V. Varchenko351113113
WSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov3731211113V. Varchenko361110961
LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov331012471V. Varchenko44121011113
WAug 22 · 09:30V. Stukalov4211137113V. Varchenko354111191
WAug 5 · 18:30V. Stukalov541291111113V. Varchenko4214116562
LJun 14 · 07:35V. Stukalov42811211102V. Varchenko47115118123
WApr 26 · 09:35V. Stukalov541041111183V. Varchenko50121174162
LApr 19 · 15:10V. Stukalov40311511102V. Varchenko50117119123
WApr 12 · 13:10V. Stukalov52111189133V. Varchenko45391111112
V. Stukalov10
LSep 19 · 08:50V. Stukalov2.251110471V. Kucheriavyi1.5781211113WSep 19 · 05:50V. Stukalov1.911111133D. Khavanskyi1.8085110LSep 18 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.25111261192V. Korniichuk1.331310115113LSep 18 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.281111113V. Stukalov3.503980LSep 18 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.9112118642S. Semenets1.801061111113LSep 18 · 07:35K. Klymenko1.57101112113V. Stukalov2.251271031LSep 18 · 06:05V. Stukalov2.507740O. Mytsyk1.501111113LSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.101113113D. Khavanskyi1.6751140WSep 16 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.1031111173V. Kondratenko1.671168151
V. Varchenko10
WSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113WSep 13 · 10:05V. Varchenko2.63441211133S. Semenets1.441111104112WSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123LSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961
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