TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094641
Played Sep 8Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116113115––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 70.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 9–2 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-2 in 11
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1288 vs Varchenko 1128
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Varchenko 0%
Mukhin
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Varchenko 20%
Mukhin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -1 · Varchenko -5
Varchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.40 / Varchenko 2.75
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Mukhin)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13094641
Mukhin1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it79% 71 of 90
Varchenko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 14 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin8wins
AwayVarchenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin75%6 of 8
AwayVarchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin8Varchenko2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S2Mukhin6Varchenko4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin8Varchenko2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S4Mukhin4Varchenko3n = 7Mukhin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinVarchenkoM − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.530.7+9.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 303 vs 98 / 22251.2%44.1%155 / 303 vs 98 / 222Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.40/Varchenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin—911118113V. Varchenko—11641152
LAug 16 · 08:05V. Mukhin—14811962V. Varchenko—1211411113
WAug 5 · 16:30V. Mukhin—1111113V. Varchenko—8160
WAug 2 · 10:20V. Mukhin—1111113V. Varchenko—5740
LJul 31 · 18:00V. Mukhin—118891V. Varchenko—21111113
WJul 11 · 07:30V. Mukhin—15116113V. Varchenko—1361191
WJun 14 · 11:05V. Mukhin—11811113V. Varchenko—911261
WMay 9 · 07:30V. Mukhin—1111113V. Varchenko—4370
WMar 29 · 16:40V. Mukhin—111311113V. Varchenko—815661
WSep 28 · 08:05V. Mukhin—61311123V. Varchenko—11117101
V. Mukhin10
LSep 8 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.50711119132S. Hovorunets2.50117411153WSep 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin1.5011711113S. Semenets2.50911891WSep 8 · 12:00V. Mukhin2.25916116113Y. Korotin1.57111431182WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123
V. Varchenko10
LSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961LSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113
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