TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094626
Played Sep 8Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111614113611118
Yevhenii Korotin
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Korotin to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Yevhenii Korotin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Yevhenii Korotin at 60.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 3–5 Yevhenii Korotin Vitalii Mukhin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Korotin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Korotin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1289 vs Korotin 1293
Korotin
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Korotin 60%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Korotin 40%
Mukhin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +4 · Korotin +1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Korotin) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mukhin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 2.25 / Korotin 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Korotin)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13094626
Mukhin2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog27% won 22 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Korotin1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 18 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMukhin3wins
AwayKorotin5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKorotin leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin60%3 of 5
AwayKorotin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin5Korotin3n = 8Mukhin took 5 of 8
S2Mukhin5Korotin3n = 8Mukhin took 5 of 8
S3Mukhin2Korotin6n = 8Korotin took 6 of 8
S4Mukhin1Korotin4n = 5Korotin took 4 of 5
S5Mukhin1Korotin2n = 3Korotin took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMukhinKorotinM − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match32.536.5−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKorotinBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 300 vs 97 / 19851%49%153 / 300 vs 97 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorotinMukhin 2.25/Korotin 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Korotin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin—11119342Y. Korotin—981111113
LAug 5 · 18:00V. Mukhin—7980Y. Korotin—1111113
LJun 21 · 10:40V. Mukhin—5570Y. Korotin—1111113
LMar 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin—811341Y. Korotin—11511113
WMar 23 · 10:00V. Mukhin—111154113Y. Korotin—77111192
LMar 19 · 17:40V. Mukhin—11711862Y. Korotin—611311113
WOct 12 · 12:10V. Mukhin—1112563Y. Korotin—5101131
WSep 30 · 16:40V. Mukhin—1213113Y. Korotin—101110
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591
Y. Korotin10
WSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113WSep 4 · 14:30Y. Korotin3.50911811113S. Yakimenko1.2811911772WSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690LAug 30 · 16:40Y. Korotin1.917390V. Stukalov1.801111113LAug 30 · 15:10Y. Korotin2.7571080O. Mytsyk1.401112113WAug 30 · 13:40Y. Korotin1.73119118113M. Khalenko2.0091141162LAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113LAug 30 · 10:40Y. Korotin2.501161181K. Klymenko1.5091113113
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