TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095005
Played Sep 8Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
3111210119116––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 54.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 7–14 Volodymyr Varchenko Vladyslav Stukalov has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Varchenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1225 vs Varchenko 1146
Stukalov
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Varchenko 0%
Stukalov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 30% vs Varchenko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -1 · Varchenko -5
Varchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.00 / Varchenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varchenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13095005
Stukalov2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 101 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 72
Varchenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 25 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it66% 21 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov5wins
AwayVarchenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%3 of 3
AwayVarchenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S2Stukalov6Varchenko4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov6Varchenko3n = 9Stukalov took 6 of 9
S5Stukalov3Varchenko2n = 5Stukalov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovVarchenkoS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.342.7−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 812 vs 98 / 22050.6%44.6%411 / 812 vs 98 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoStukalov 2.00/Varchenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov—1012471V. Varchenko—121011113
WAug 22 · 09:30V. Stukalov—11137113V. Varchenko—4111191
WAug 5 · 18:30V. Stukalov—1291111113V. Varchenko—14116562
LJun 14 · 07:35V. Stukalov—811211102V. Varchenko—115118123
WApr 26 · 09:35V. Stukalov—1041111183V. Varchenko—121174162
LApr 19 · 15:10V. Stukalov—311511102V. Varchenko—117119123
WApr 12 · 13:10V. Stukalov—111189133V. Varchenko—391111112
LMar 31 · 13:10V. Stukalov—81311111V. Varchenko—11157133
WMar 22 · 14:40V. Stukalov—1113593V. Varchenko—9111141
LMar 1 · 17:40V. Stukalov—4740V. Varchenko—1111113
V. Stukalov10
LSep 8 · 12:30V. Stukalov1.739950S. Semenets2.001111113WSep 7 · 11:50V. Korniichuk1.40116861V. Stukalov2.7561111113LSep 7 · 10:50V. Stukalov3.40117791V. Melnykov1.3081111113LSep 7 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.5012330M. Stetsenko1.501411113LSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113
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