TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148397
Played Sep 18Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131210611115911
Vitalii Korniichuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeVitalii Korniichuk to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Vitalii Korniichuk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vitalii Korniichuk at 69.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 23–30 Vitalii Korniichuk Vladyslav Stukalov has won 23 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Korniichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-30 in 53
Korniichuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1178 vs Korniichuk 1344
Korniichuk
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 0% vs Korniichuk 60%
Korniichuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 50% vs Korniichuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -5 · Korniichuk +1
Stukalov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Korniichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korniichuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 3.25 / Korniichuk 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Korniichuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13148397
Stukalov3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 105 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 78
Korniichuk1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 64 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov3wins
AwayKorniichuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKorniichuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKorniichuk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov2Korniichuk8n = 10Korniichuk took 8 of 10
S2Stukalov2Korniichuk8n = 10Korniichuk took 8 of 10
S3Stukalov3Korniichuk7n = 10Korniichuk took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov3Korniichuk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovKorniichukS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.139.4−10.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovKorniichukBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 823 vs 284 / 51350.1%55.4%412 / 823 vs 284 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorniichukStukalov 3.25/Korniichuk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Korniichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Korniichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 09:05V. Stukalov23281121V. Korniichuk4211119113
WSep 7 · 11:50V. Stukalov3961111113V. Korniichuk31116861
WSep 3 · 07:35V. Stukalov48119611113V. Korniichuk4571111882
LSep 1 · 07:35V. Stukalov27661141V. Korniichuk4111118113
WAug 24 · 11:05V. Stukalov557121411113V. Korniichuk52111016872
LJun 10 · 07:00V. Stukalov70430V. Korniichuk331111113
LMay 22 · 09:00V. Stukalov103250V. Korniichuk331111113
LMay 19 · 11:35V. Stukalov135530V. Korniichuk331111113
LApr 27 · 09:35V. Stukalov4414111361V. Korniichuk51121315113
LApr 24 · 09:00V. Stukalov259970V. Korniichuk331111113
V. Stukalov10
LSep 18 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.281111113V. Stukalov3.503980LSep 18 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.9112118642S. Semenets1.801061111113LSep 18 · 07:35K. Klymenko1.57101112113V. Stukalov2.251271031LSep 18 · 06:05V. Stukalov2.507740O. Mytsyk1.501111113LSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.101113113D. Khavanskyi1.6751140WSep 16 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.1031111173V. Kondratenko1.671168151WSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov3.0011117113S. Hovorunets1.36691191WSep 15 · 17:10V. Stukalov2.10118113163D. Khavanskyi1.67811911142WSep 15 · 15:10Y. Korotin1.911051171V. Stukalov1.8012117113
V. Korniichuk10
WSep 18 · 10:35S. Semenets2.509920V. Korniichuk1.501111113LSep 18 · 09:05K. Klymenko1.5711117113V. Korniichuk2.25591171WSep 18 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.831141011112V. Korniichuk1.83811129133LSep 18 · 05:05V. Mukhin2.5011117113V. Korniichuk1.50871191WSep 11 · 11:35K. Riazanovskyi1.73117811V. Korniichuk2.0071111113WSep 11 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi2.2598100V. Korniichuk1.571111123WSep 11 · 09:05V. Stukalov2.63281121V. Korniichuk1.4411119113LSep 11 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.8321111113V. Korniichuk1.83119581WSep 11 · 05:05O. Miklukha2.6313101181V. Korniichuk1.44111213113LSep 7 · 11:50V. Korniichuk1.40116861V. Stukalov2.7561111113
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