TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148501
Played Sep 18Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911211––––
Vitalii Korniichuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii Korniichuk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Vitalii Korniichuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 53 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Vitalii Korniichuk at 60.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 3–6 Vitalii Korniichuk Serhii Semenets has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Korniichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Korniichuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1282 vs Korniichuk 1333
Korniichuk
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 60% vs Korniichuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 60% vs Korniichuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Korniichuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Korniichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 2.50 / Korniichuk 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Korniichuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13148501
Semenets2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Korniichuk1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 64 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSemenets3wins
AwayKorniichuk6wins
5 of 9 to a deciderKorniichuk leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets66.7%2 of 3
AwayKorniichuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets3Korniichuk6n = 9Korniichuk took 6 of 9
S2Semenets7Korniichuk2n = 9Semenets took 7 of 9
S3Semenets3Korniichuk6n = 9Korniichuk took 6 of 9
S4Semenets4Korniichuk4n = 8split evenly
S5Semenets1Korniichuk4n = 5Korniichuk took 4 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSemenetsKorniichukS − KBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match41.142.2−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsKorniichukBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 828 vs 283 / 51250.2%55.3%416 / 828 vs 283 / 512Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorniichukSemenets 2.50/Korniichuk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Korniichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Korniichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 7 · 07:20S. Semenets32912471V. Korniichuk43111011113
LSep 3 · 05:35S. Semenets461011123102V. Korniichuk501251011123
WSep 1 · 08:35S. Semenets51911119113V. Korniichuk4611791182
WAug 24 · 06:35S. Semenets4111118113V. Korniichuk34691181
LMay 19 · 09:05S. Semenets4491321192V. Korniichuk491111115113
LApr 27 · 11:05S. Semenets259970V. Korniichuk331111113
LApr 24 · 10:30S. Semenets4211561192V. Korniichuk48611119113
LApr 22 · 10:30S. Semenets48911111072V. Korniichuk47116712113
WApr 20 · 10:30S. Semenets4111127113V. Korniichuk304101151
S. Semenets10
WSep 18 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.9112118642S. Semenets1.801061111113LSep 18 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50611116113S. Semenets2.5011661192LSep 18 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.5771111123S. Semenets2.251188101WSep 16 · 12:50S. Semenets1.61911113113S. Hovorunets2.2011591152WSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 08:50Y. Korotin1.7388131192S. Semenets2.001111118113LSep 16 · 07:50S. Semenets2.001181041D. Khavanskyi1.7391112113WSep 16 · 06:50V. Kondratenko1.33111111972S. Semenets3.25741311113WSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113LSep 15 · 16:10S. Semenets1.8371111972D. Khavanskyi1.83111711113
V. Korniichuk10
WSep 18 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.25111261192V. Korniichuk1.331310115113LSep 18 · 09:05K. Klymenko1.5711117113V. Korniichuk2.25591171WSep 18 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.831141011112V. Korniichuk1.83811129133LSep 18 · 05:05V. Mukhin2.5011117113V. Korniichuk1.50871191WSep 11 · 11:35K. Riazanovskyi1.73117811V. Korniichuk2.0071111113WSep 11 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi2.2598100V. Korniichuk1.571111123WSep 11 · 09:05V. Stukalov2.63281121V. Korniichuk1.4411119113LSep 11 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.8321111113V. Korniichuk1.83119581WSep 11 · 05:05O. Miklukha2.6313101181V. Korniichuk1.44111213113LSep 7 · 11:50V. Korniichuk1.40116861V. Stukalov2.7561111113
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