TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136685
Played Sep 16Finished
Vasily Kondratenko
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171141113911711
Serhii Semenets
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 68.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 10–8 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Kondratenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1224 vs Semenets 1275
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 0% vs Semenets 80%
Semenets
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 20% vs Semenets 70%
Semenets
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko -5 · Semenets +1
Kondratenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kondratenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.33 / Semenets 3.25
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kondratenko)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136685
Kondratenko1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 76 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Semenets3.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKondratenko6wins
AwaySemenets4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKondratenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenko57.1%4 of 7
AwaySemenets33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko7Semenets3n = 10Kondratenko took 7 of 10
S2Kondratenko8Semenets2n = 10Kondratenko took 8 of 10
S3Kondratenko6Semenets4n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S4Kondratenko3Semenets3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKondratenkoSemenetsK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.233.7+3.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 555 vs 417 / 82844%50.4%244 / 555 vs 417 / 828Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.33/Semenets 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:50V. Kondratenko49111111972S. Semenets46741311113
WAug 24 · 08:35V. Kondratenko341111123S. Semenets2367100
WAug 22 · 10:00V. Kondratenko3521111113S. Semenets29116661
LAug 8 · 09:30V. Kondratenko37911891S. Semenets3611311113
WAug 6 · 05:30V. Kondratenko351111133S. Semenets2586110
WJul 28 · 05:00V. Kondratenko351311113S. Semenets2611780
WFeb 18 · 22:50V. Kondratenko351211123S. Semenets27107100
LFeb 4 · 20:50V. Kondratenko3912841142S. Semenets521011119113
LJan 25 · 17:50V. Kondratenko30114781S. Semenets3741111113
WJan 21 · 17:50V. Kondratenko4361115113S. Semenets361161361
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113
S. Semenets10
LSep 16 · 07:50S. Semenets2.001181041D. Khavanskyi1.7391112113WSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113LSep 15 · 16:10S. Semenets1.8371111972D. Khavanskyi1.83111711113WSep 15 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.8311611332S. Semenets1.83411611113WSep 15 · 12:10Y. Korotin1.8361111942S. Semenets1.83119911113WSep 15 · 11:10O. Miklukha2.104750S. Semenets1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:05S. Semenets2.001111661M. Khalenko1.7381311113LSep 13 · 10:05V. Varchenko2.63441211133S. Semenets1.441111104112WSep 13 · 08:05V. Stukalov1.836850S. Semenets1.831111113WSep 13 · 07:05S. Semenets2.201111113D. Khavanskyi1.616470
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