TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136648
Played Sep 16Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911115119311115
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 58.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 43–31 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 31 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-31 in 74
Semenets
Correct
gap of 12 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1281 vs Hovorunets 1268
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 80% vs Hovorunets 40%
Semenets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 70% vs Hovorunets 50%
Semenets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +2 · Hovorunets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Semenets) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.61 / Hovorunets 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Semenets)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13136648
Semenets1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 90 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 69 of 91
Hovorunets2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets4wins
AwayHovorunets6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHovorunets leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets50%4 of 8
AwayHovorunetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets8Hovorunets2n = 10Semenets took 8 of 10
S2Semenets6Hovorunets4n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S3Semenets3Hovorunets7n = 10Hovorunets took 7 of 10
S4Semenets3Hovorunets3n = 6split evenly
S5Semenets0Hovorunets3n = 3Hovorunets took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsHovorunetsS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.7+1.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 831 vs 236 / 48450.4%48.8%419 / 831 vs 236 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsSemenets 1.61/Hovorunets 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 17:40S. Semenets331111113S. Hovorunets206860
WSep 9 · 07:35S. Semenets431121113S. Hovorunets3281950
WSep 8 · 19:00S. Semenets341211113S. Hovorunets1610420
LAug 18 · 06:28S. Semenets33911671S. Hovorunets3911611113
WAug 6 · 11:30S. Semenets48111115113S. Hovorunets44991791
LAug 5 · 19:00S. Semenets4111461192S. Hovorunets42511114113
LMar 19 · 08:50S. Semenets34119951S. Hovorunets3851111113
LMar 18 · 16:50S. Semenets176650S. Hovorunets331111113
LMar 12 · 08:50S. Semenets4311581182S. Hovorunets47811116113
LMar 11 · 18:50S. Semenets4511117972S. Hovorunets46491111113
S. Semenets10
WSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 08:50Y. Korotin1.7388131192S. Semenets2.001111118113LSep 16 · 07:50S. Semenets2.001181041D. Khavanskyi1.7391112113WSep 16 · 06:50V. Kondratenko1.33111111972S. Semenets3.25741311113WSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113LSep 15 · 16:10S. Semenets1.8371111972D. Khavanskyi1.83111711113WSep 15 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.8311611332S. Semenets1.83411611113WSep 15 · 12:10Y. Korotin1.8361111942S. Semenets1.83119911113WSep 15 · 11:10O. Miklukha2.104750S. Semenets1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:05S. Semenets2.001111661M. Khalenko1.7381311113
S. Hovorunets10
LSep 16 · 11:20S. Hovorunets1.5381211982D. Khavanskyi2.381110311113WSep 16 · 09:20V. Kondratenko1.737101161S. Hovorunets2.0011126113WSep 16 · 07:20Y. Korotin2.2511391262S. Hovorunets1.578111110113LSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov3.0011117113S. Hovorunets1.36691191LSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113WSep 15 · 15:40O. Miklukha3.25117111162S. Hovorunets1.33811139113LSep 15 · 13:40Y. Korotin2.75138911123S. Hovorunets1.401111118102WSep 15 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.611111113D. Khavanskyi2.208680WSep 15 · 11:40V. Stukalov2.63412100S. Hovorunets1.441114123LSep 9 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.57119511113S. Hovorunets2.2591111632
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