TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100274
Played Sep 9Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911511116113
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 87 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 60.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 27–13 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 13 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-13 in 40
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 14 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1355 vs Hovorunets 1277
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 100% vs Hovorunets 20%
Mukhin
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 90% vs Hovorunets 50%
Mukhin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +5 · Hovorunets -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hovorunets form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.57 / Hovorunets 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Mukhin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100274
Mukhin1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 99 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 92
Hovorunets2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin6wins
AwayHovorunets4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin83.3%5 of 6
AwayHovorunets75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin6Hovorunets4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S2Mukhin7Hovorunets3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin6Hovorunets4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S4Mukhin5Hovorunets2n = 7Mukhin took 5 of 7
S5Mukhin1Hovorunets3n = 4Hovorunets took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinHovorunetsM − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.1+5.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 310 vs 234 / 48452.3%48.4%162 / 310 vs 234 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.57/Hovorunets 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:05V. Mukhin—119511113S. Hovorunets—91111632
LSep 8 · 15:00V. Mukhin—711119132S. Hovorunets—117411153
WAug 19 · 04:30V. Mukhin—111111113S. Hovorunets—136641
WAug 18 · 07:28V. Mukhin—1119113S. Hovorunets—81720
WAug 6 · 06:00V. Mukhin—1212113S. Hovorunets—101090
LAug 5 · 15:00V. Mukhin—141181182S. Hovorunets—168118113
WJul 9 · 09:35V. Mukhin—1111113S. Hovorunets—9920
WJun 18 · 05:05V. Mukhin—111211113S. Hovorunets—614861
LJun 17 · 12:10V. Mukhin—61181142S. Hovorunets—116116113
LJun 10 · 07:30V. Mukhin—12107101S. Hovorunets—101211123
V. Mukhin10
WSep 9 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.50116811113S. Semenets2.5071111972WSep 9 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.251212113O. Mytsyk1.33101090WSep 9 · 06:35V. Mukhin2.10311411113M. Khalenko1.6711711972WSep 9 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.5761211113D. Khavanskyi2.251110771WSep 8 · 18:00V. Mukhin1.331111113V. Stukalov3.255860WSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 8 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.50711119132S. Hovorunets2.50117411153WSep 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin1.5011711113S. Semenets2.50911891WSep 8 · 12:00V. Mukhin2.25916116113Y. Korotin1.57111431182WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850
S. Hovorunets10
LSep 9 · 10:05S. Hovorunets2.009370O. Mytsyk1.731111113LSep 9 · 09:05S. Hovorunets1.6112611782D. Khavanskyi2.201011711113LSep 9 · 07:35S. Hovorunets1.9181950S. Semenets1.801121113WSep 9 · 05:35S. Hovorunets2.00741111123M. Khalenko1.73111199102LSep 8 · 19:00S. Hovorunets1.6710420S. Semenets2.101211113WSep 8 · 17:00V. Stukalov2.209820S. Hovorunets1.611111113WSep 8 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.50711119132S. Hovorunets2.50117411153WSep 8 · 14:00S. Hovorunets1.571111113Y. Korotin2.253640WSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LAug 19 · 11:00V. Stukalov2.631111113S. Hovorunets1.446920
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