TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456540
Played Aug 19Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119112––––
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:09 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hovorunets to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 50 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Serhii Hovorunets at 68.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 7–21 Serhii Hovorunets Vladyslav Stukalov has won 7 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hovorunets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-21 in 28
Hovorunets
Wrong
gap of 14 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1204 vs Hovorunets 1301
Hovorunets
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Hovorunets 40%
Hovorunets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 20% vs Hovorunets 50%
Hovorunets
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -2 · Hovorunets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Hovorunets) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hovorunets form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.63 / Hovorunets 1.44
Signal prob.30% / 71%
Edge (Hovorunets)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12456540
Stukalov2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 95 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 66
Hovorunets1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 52 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov4wins
AwayHovorunets6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHovorunets leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov60%3 of 5
AwayHovorunets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S2Stukalov5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S3Stukalov5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S4Stukalov3Hovorunets3n = 6split evenly
S5Stukalov2Hovorunets4n = 6Hovorunets took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovHovorunetsS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.640.4−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 785 vs 246 / 50250.5%49%396 / 785 vs 246 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HovorunetsStukalov 2.63/Hovorunets 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.5%
Hovorunets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 14:00V. Stukalov—613128113S. Hovorunets—1111101192
WAug 1 · 09:30V. Stukalov—1111113S. Hovorunets—9840
LJul 24 · 09:00V. Stukalov—131230S. Hovorunets—1514113
WJul 8 · 09:00V. Stukalov—149911113S. Hovorunets—121111782
LJun 25 · 09:35V. Stukalov—61181182S. Hovorunets—116117113
LJun 17 · 14:10V. Stukalov—1110711112S. Hovorunets—512119133
LJun 11 · 10:05V. Stukalov—12514592S. Hovorunets—10111211113
LJun 10 · 09:30V. Stukalov—7740S. Hovorunets—1111113
LJun 8 · 11:00V. Stukalov—81111382S. Hovorunets—118511113
WJun 7 · 13:40V. Stukalov—1111113S. Hovorunets—5250
V. Stukalov10
WSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961LSep 8 · 12:30V. Stukalov1.739950S. Semenets2.001111113WSep 7 · 11:50V. Korniichuk1.40116861V. Stukalov2.7561111113LSep 7 · 10:50V. Stukalov3.40117791V. Melnykov1.3081111113LSep 7 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.5012330M. Stetsenko1.501411113LSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130
S. Hovorunets10
WSep 8 · 14:00S. Hovorunets1.571111113Y. Korotin2.253640WSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LAug 19 · 10:00M. Khalenko1.9161111113S. Hovorunets1.80119461WAug 19 · 08:30O. Miklukha2.631031131S. Hovorunets1.4412111113WAug 19 · 06:30V. Kondratenko1.736411121S. Hovorunets2.0011115143LAug 19 · 04:30V. Mukhin1.53111111113S. Hovorunets2.38136641LAug 18 · 11:29S. Hovorunets1.53611118102M. Khalenko2.38118411123WAug 18 · 09:28O. Miklukha2.251465111S. Hovorunets1.57121111133LAug 18 · 07:28V. Mukhin1.611119113S. Hovorunets2.2081720WAug 18 · 06:28S. Hovorunets1.8011611113S. Semenets1.91911671
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