TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456537
Played Aug 19Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113116116114––
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 73 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 63.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 25–12 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:12What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-12 in 37
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1267 vs Hovorunets 1306
Hovorunets
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Hovorunets 60%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Hovorunets 40%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +4 · Hovorunets -1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Mukhin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hovorunets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.53 / Hovorunets 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Mukhin)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12456537
Mukhin1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 83 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it77% 62 of 81
Hovorunets2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 45 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin6wins
AwayHovorunets4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin83.3%5 of 6
AwayHovorunets75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin6Hovorunets4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S2Mukhin6Hovorunets4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin7Hovorunets3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S4Mukhin4Hovorunets2n = 6Mukhin took 4 of 6
S5Mukhin1Hovorunets2n = 3Hovorunets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinHovorunetsM − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.036.7+3.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 280 vs 244 / 49850%49%140 / 280 vs 244 / 498Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.53/Hovorunets 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 07:28V. Mukhin—1119113S. Hovorunets—81720
WAug 6 · 06:00V. Mukhin—1212113S. Hovorunets—101090
LAug 5 · 15:00V. Mukhin—141181182S. Hovorunets—168118113
WJul 9 · 09:35V. Mukhin—1111113S. Hovorunets—9920
WJun 18 · 05:05V. Mukhin—111211113S. Hovorunets—614861
LJun 17 · 12:10V. Mukhin—61181142S. Hovorunets—116116113
LJun 10 · 07:30V. Mukhin—12107101S. Hovorunets—101211123
WJun 8 · 04:30V. Mukhin—971112113S. Hovorunets—111151052
WJun 6 · 11:05V. Mukhin—1111113S. Hovorunets—9990
LMay 27 · 05:05V. Mukhin—961341S. Hovorunets—111111113
V. Mukhin10
WSep 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin1.5011711113S. Semenets2.50911891WSep 8 · 12:00V. Mukhin2.25916116113Y. Korotin1.57111431182WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112
S. Hovorunets10
WSep 8 · 14:00S. Hovorunets1.571111113Y. Korotin2.253640WSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LAug 19 · 11:00V. Stukalov2.631111113S. Hovorunets1.446920LAug 19 · 10:00M. Khalenko1.9161111113S. Hovorunets1.80119461WAug 19 · 08:30O. Miklukha2.631031131S. Hovorunets1.4412111113WAug 19 · 06:30V. Kondratenko1.736411121S. Hovorunets2.0011115143LAug 18 · 11:29S. Hovorunets1.53611118102M. Khalenko2.38118411123WAug 18 · 09:28O. Miklukha2.251465111S. Hovorunets1.57121111133LAug 18 · 07:28V. Mukhin1.611119113S. Hovorunets2.2081720WAug 18 · 06:28S. Hovorunets1.8011611113S. Semenets1.91911671
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