TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456550
Played Aug 19Finished
Vasily Kondratenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6114111151214––
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 74 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 55.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 12–6 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Kondratenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1269 vs Hovorunets 1284
Hovorunets
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 40% vs Hovorunets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 40% vs Hovorunets 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko +1 · Hovorunets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kondratenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.73 / Hovorunets 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kondratenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12456550
Kondratenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 79 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 55 of 67
Hovorunets2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKondratenko5wins
AwayHovorunets5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHovorunets62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko2Hovorunets8n = 10Hovorunets took 8 of 10
S2Kondratenko6Hovorunets4n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S3Kondratenko6Hovorunets4n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S4Kondratenko5Hovorunets2n = 7Kondratenko took 5 of 7
S5Kondratenko1Hovorunets2n = 3Hovorunets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKondratenkoHovorunetsK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.1+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 601 vs 243 / 49845.4%48.8%273 / 601 vs 243 / 498Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.73/Hovorunets 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hovorunets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 06:30V. Kondratenko—6411121S. Hovorunets—11115143
WAug 6 · 08:00V. Kondratenko—911311133S. Hovorunets—118116112
LJul 24 · 07:30V. Kondratenko—71790S. Hovorunets—1119113
WJul 9 · 06:05V. Kondratenko—11116113S. Hovorunets—961181
WJun 11 · 12:05V. Kondratenko—61111113S. Hovorunets—116981
LJun 8 · 08:30V. Kondratenko—51113462S. Hovorunets—1151111113
WJun 7 · 12:40V. Kondratenko—1111113S. Hovorunets—6650
LFeb 19 · 10:20V. Kondratenko—88111172S. Hovorunets—111179113
LFeb 18 · 21:20V. Kondratenko—61090S. Hovorunets—1112113
WFeb 12 · 09:50V. Kondratenko—71111103S. Hovorunets—115451
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113
S. Hovorunets10
WSep 8 · 14:00S. Hovorunets1.571111113Y. Korotin2.253640WSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LAug 19 · 11:00V. Stukalov2.631111113S. Hovorunets1.446920LAug 19 · 10:00M. Khalenko1.9161111113S. Hovorunets1.80119461WAug 19 · 08:30O. Miklukha2.631031131S. Hovorunets1.4412111113LAug 19 · 04:30V. Mukhin1.53111111113S. Hovorunets2.38136641LAug 18 · 11:29S. Hovorunets1.53611118102M. Khalenko2.38118411123WAug 18 · 09:28O. Miklukha2.251465111S. Hovorunets1.57121111133LAug 18 · 07:28V. Mukhin1.611119113S. Hovorunets2.2081720WAug 18 · 06:28S. Hovorunets1.8011611113S. Semenets1.91911671
Upcoming Matches
V. Kondratenko
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S. Hovorunets
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