TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130911
Played Sep 15Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
41112141012––––
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hovorunets to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 63 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Serhii Hovorunets at 66.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 8–23 Serhii Hovorunets Vladyslav Stukalov has won 8 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hovorunets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-23 in 31
Hovorunets
Correct
gap of 15 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1147 vs Hovorunets 1277
Hovorunets
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Hovorunets 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 20% vs Hovorunets 50%
Hovorunets
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -4 · Hovorunets -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Hovorunets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hovorunets form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.63 / Hovorunets 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Hovorunets)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130911
Stukalov2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog45% won 101 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 77
Hovorunets1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov4wins
AwayHovorunets6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHovorunets leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov60%3 of 5
AwayHovorunets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S2Stukalov4Hovorunets6n = 10Hovorunets took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov4Hovorunets6n = 10Hovorunets took 6 of 10
S4Stukalov3Hovorunets2n = 5Stukalov took 3 of 5
S5Stukalov2Hovorunets3n = 5Hovorunets took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovHovorunetsS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.6−2.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 821 vs 232 / 48050.3%48.3%413 / 821 vs 232 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HovorunetsStukalov 2.63/Hovorunets 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Hovorunets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hovorunets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 17:00V. Stukalov199820S. Hovorunets331111113
WAug 19 · 11:00V. Stukalov331111113S. Hovorunets176920
LAug 18 · 05:28V. Stukalov197480S. Hovorunets331111113
WAug 5 · 14:00V. Stukalov50613128113S. Hovorunets521111101192
WAug 1 · 09:30V. Stukalov331111113S. Hovorunets219840
LJul 24 · 09:00V. Stukalov28131230S. Hovorunets401514113
WJul 8 · 09:00V. Stukalov54149911113S. Hovorunets49121111782
LJun 25 · 09:35V. Stukalov4461181182S. Hovorunets46116117113
LJun 17 · 14:10V. Stukalov501110711112S. Hovorunets50512119133
LJun 11 · 10:05V. Stukalov4512514592S. Hovorunets5510111211113
V. Stukalov10
LSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.101113113D. Khavanskyi1.6751140WSep 16 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.1031111173V. Kondratenko1.671168151WSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov3.0011117113S. Hovorunets1.36691191WSep 15 · 17:10V. Stukalov2.10118113163D. Khavanskyi1.67811911142WSep 15 · 15:10Y. Korotin1.911051171V. Stukalov1.8012117113LSep 15 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.8311611332S. Semenets1.83411611113WSep 15 · 13:10O. Miklukha2.209670V. Stukalov1.611111113LSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113LSep 13 · 09:35V. Stukalov1.9111510V. Kucheriavyi1.801311113
S. Hovorunets10
LSep 16 · 12:50S. Semenets1.61911113113S. Hovorunets2.2011591152LSep 16 · 11:20S. Hovorunets1.5381211982D. Khavanskyi2.381110311113WSep 16 · 09:20V. Kondratenko1.737101161S. Hovorunets2.0011126113WSep 16 · 07:20Y. Korotin2.2511391262S. Hovorunets1.578111110113LSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov3.0011117113S. Hovorunets1.36691191LSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113WSep 15 · 15:40O. Miklukha3.25117111162S. Hovorunets1.33811139113LSep 15 · 13:40Y. Korotin2.75138911123S. Hovorunets1.401111118102WSep 15 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.611111113D. Khavanskyi2.208680LSep 9 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.57119511113S. Hovorunets2.2591111632
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