TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122056
Played Sep 13Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111113711––––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 8–14 Volodymyr Varchenko Vladyslav Stukalov has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:59What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Varchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Varchenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1160 vs Varchenko 1181
Varchenko
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Varchenko 60%
Varchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 20% vs Varchenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -3 · Varchenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stukalov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stukalov form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.83 / Varchenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stukalov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122056
Stukalov1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Varchenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwayVarchenko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%3 of 3
AwayVarchenko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S2Stukalov7Varchenko3n = 10Stukalov took 7 of 10
S3Stukalov4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S4Stukalov7Varchenko3n = 10Stukalov took 7 of 10
S5Stukalov3Varchenko2n = 5Stukalov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovVarchenkoS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.543.0+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 821 vs 100 / 22450.3%44.6%413 / 821 vs 100 / 224Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.83/Varchenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Varchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov3731211113V. Varchenko361110961
LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov331012471V. Varchenko44121011113
WAug 22 · 09:30V. Stukalov4211137113V. Varchenko354111191
WAug 5 · 18:30V. Stukalov541291111113V. Varchenko4214116562
LJun 14 · 07:35V. Stukalov42811211102V. Varchenko47115118123
WApr 26 · 09:35V. Stukalov541041111183V. Varchenko50121174162
LApr 19 · 15:10V. Stukalov40311511102V. Varchenko50117119123
WApr 12 · 13:10V. Stukalov52111189133V. Varchenko45391111112
LMar 31 · 13:10V. Stukalov4381311111V. Varchenko4611157133
WMar 22 · 14:40V. Stukalov381113593V. Varchenko359111141
V. Stukalov10
LSep 13 · 09:35V. Stukalov1.9111510V. Kucheriavyi1.801311113LSep 13 · 08:05V. Stukalov1.836850S. Semenets1.831111113LSep 13 · 06:35V. Stukalov2.209670M. Khalenko1.611111113WSep 13 · 05:05V. Stukalov2.50981111113D. Khavanskyi1.5011114592LSep 11 · 11:05O. Miklukha2.25111111113V. Stukalov1.57613421LSep 11 · 10:05V. Stukalov2.25911871O. Mytsyk1.5711911113LSep 11 · 09:05V. Stukalov2.63281121V. Korniichuk1.4411119113WSep 11 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.38111111113K. Riazanovskyi1.53413581LSep 11 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.63411118102D. Khavanskyi1.44115811123LSep 8 · 18:00V. Mukhin1.331111113V. Stukalov3.255860
V. Varchenko10
WSep 13 · 10:05V. Varchenko2.63441211133S. Semenets1.441111104112WSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123LSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961LSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102
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