TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110969
Played Sep 11Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111151188111012
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 66.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 14–26 Denys Khavanskyi Vladyslav Stukalov has won 14 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Khavanskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-26 in 40
Khavanskyi
Correct
gap of 12 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1204 vs Khavanskyi 1280
Khavanskyi
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 20% vs Khavanskyi 80%
Khavanskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 30% vs Khavanskyi 50%
Khavanskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -3 · Khavanskyi +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Khavanskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.63 / Khavanskyi 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Khavanskyi)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13110969
Stukalov2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 102 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 74
Khavanskyi1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite40% won 22 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov3wins
AwayKhavanskyi7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov50%2 of 4
AwayKhavanskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov6Khavanskyi4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov3Khavanskyi7n = 10Khavanskyi took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov2Khavanskyi4n = 6Khavanskyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovKhavanskyiS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.535.3−5.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 816 vs 153 / 29750.5%51.5%412 / 816 vs 153 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhavanskyiStukalov 2.63/Khavanskyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Khavanskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 09:35V. Stukalov—6740D. Khavanskyi—1111113
LSep 1 · 09:05V. Stukalov—711631D. Khavanskyi—11911113
WAug 29 · 09:20V. Stukalov—41411113D. Khavanskyi—1112841
LAug 26 · 11:00V. Stukalov—1161151D. Khavanskyi—71113113
WMay 30 · 08:30V. Stukalov—1111113D. Khavanskyi—9550
WMay 13 · 07:00V. Stukalov—1111133D. Khavanskyi—59110
LDec 6 · 12:00V. Stukalov—3210D. Khavanskyi—111183
LNov 22 · 08:00V. Stukalov—14581182D. Khavanskyi—1211115113
LNov 18 · 18:10V. Stukalov—511861D. Khavanskyi—11711113
LOct 12 · 21:20V. Stukalov—511481D. Khavanskyi—11411113
V. Stukalov10
WSep 11 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.38111111113K. Riazanovskyi1.53413581LSep 8 · 18:00V. Mukhin1.331111113V. Stukalov3.255860LSep 8 · 17:00V. Stukalov2.209820S. Hovorunets1.611111113LSep 8 · 16:00V. Stukalov1.671111511102Y. Korotin2.10661113123WSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961LSep 8 · 12:30V. Stukalov1.739950S. Semenets2.001111113WSep 7 · 11:50V. Korniichuk1.40116861V. Stukalov2.7561111113LSep 7 · 10:50V. Stukalov3.40117791V. Melnykov1.3081111113LSep 7 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.5012330M. Stetsenko1.501411113LSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 11 · 06:35O. Miklukha2.0011811113D. Khavanskyi1.73911271WSep 9 · 11:35S. Semenets2.101411421D. Khavanskyi1.6716811113WSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.57118115102D. Khavanskyi2.25911811123WSep 9 · 09:05S. Hovorunets1.6112611782D. Khavanskyi2.201011711113WSep 9 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.441311101172D. Khavanskyi2.63158127113LSep 9 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.5761211113D. Khavanskyi2.251110771LSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113LSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882
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