TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122057
Played Sep 13Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115114––––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 46 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 56.9%
46 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 2–3 Denys Khavanskyi Volodymyr Varchenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Khavanskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1120 vs Khavanskyi 1235
Khavanskyi
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 20% vs Khavanskyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 10% vs Khavanskyi 50%
Khavanskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko +1 · Khavanskyi -4
Khavanskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Khavanskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.91 / Khavanskyi 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Khavanskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122057
Varchenko1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Khavanskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite42% won 22 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVarchenko2wins
AwayKhavanskyi3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKhavanskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko2Khavanskyi3n = 5Khavanskyi took 3 of 5
S2Varchenko3Khavanskyi2n = 5Varchenko took 3 of 5
S3Varchenko2Khavanskyi3n = 5Khavanskyi took 3 of 5
S4Varchenko0Khavanskyi3n = 3Khavanskyi took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKhavanskyiV − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.435.4−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 222 vs 154 / 30244.1%51%98 / 222 vs 154 / 302Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhavanskyiVarchenko 1.91/Khavanskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Khavanskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Varchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LDec 20 · 08:20V. Varchenko379111161D. Khavanskyi4311138113
LDec 19 · 22:50V. Varchenko32611871D. Khavanskyi4111811113
WDec 13 · 08:35V. Varchenko341211113D. Khavanskyi2010910
LDec 2 · 12:40V. Varchenko2349100D. Khavanskyi341111123
WAug 23 · 05:35V. Varchenko41111135113D. Khavanskyi3965111162
V. Varchenko10
WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123LSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961LSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 13 · 07:05S. Semenets2.201111113D. Khavanskyi1.616470LSep 13 · 05:05V. Stukalov2.50981111113D. Khavanskyi1.5011114592LSep 11 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.571111113D. Khavanskyi2.253770LSep 11 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi2.2598100V. Korniichuk1.571111123WSep 11 · 08:35K. Riazanovskyi1.6771211992D. Khavanskyi2.101110811113LSep 11 · 06:35O. Miklukha2.0011811113D. Khavanskyi1.73911271WSep 11 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.63411118102D. Khavanskyi1.44115811123WSep 9 · 11:35S. Semenets2.101411421D. Khavanskyi1.6716811113WSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.57118115102D. Khavanskyi2.25911811123WSep 9 · 09:05S. Hovorunets1.6112611782D. Khavanskyi2.201011711113
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