TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121985
Played Sep 13Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210711911811––
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 60.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 3–4 Mykhailo Khalenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1115 vs Khalenko 1246
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 0% vs Khalenko 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 10% vs Khalenko 30%
Khalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -5 · Khalenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Khalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khalenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 2.20 / Khalenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Khalenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121985
Varchenko2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Khalenko1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVarchenko3wins
AwayKhalenko4wins
5 of 7 to a deciderKhalenko leads 4–3, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKhalenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko2Khalenko5n = 7Khalenko took 5 of 7
S2Varchenko4Khalenko3n = 7Varchenko took 4 of 7
S3Varchenko4Khalenko3n = 7Varchenko took 4 of 7
S4Varchenko6Khalenko1n = 7Varchenko took 6 of 7
S5Varchenko1Khalenko4n = 5Khalenko took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKhalenkoV − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match46.645.9+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 224 vs 185 / 36843.8%50.3%98 / 224 vs 185 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoVarchenko 2.20/Khalenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 16 · 07:05V. Varchenko52881111142M. Khalenko54111179163
LJul 11 · 06:30V. Varchenko4467111192M. Khalenko43111182113
LMay 9 · 06:30V. Varchenko49111291162M. Khalenko52814118113
WDec 7 · 12:40V. Varchenko3811114123M. Khalenko357711101
WAug 23 · 07:35V. Varchenko491211114113M. Khalenko4314681142
WAug 16 · 07:50V. Varchenko48121211133M. Khalenko4314108111
LAug 15 · 16:20V. Varchenko46511101192M. Khalenko51119128113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123LSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 8 · 15:30V. Varchenko2.638117101S. Semenets1.4411911123LSep 8 · 14:30V. Stukalov2.0031211113V. Varchenko1.731110961LSep 8 · 13:00V. Varchenko2.6391120S. Hovorunets1.441113113LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113
M. Khalenko10
WSep 13 · 06:35V. Stukalov2.209670M. Khalenko1.611111113LSep 9 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.7311121115113M. Khalenko2.0071451752LSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.57118115102D. Khavanskyi2.25911811123LSep 9 · 08:35S. Semenets2.2511911113M. Khalenko1.57711541LSep 9 · 06:35V. Mukhin2.10311411113M. Khalenko1.6711711972LSep 9 · 05:35S. Hovorunets2.00741111123M. Khalenko1.73111199102WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151
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